this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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I don't think a revolution is likely to happen until the US itself is basically beaten by the rest of the world. I think it's likely the US is headed into a period of barbarism and humiliation before we see anything like a socialist revolution. The deteriorating conditions and the federal government's complete abandonment of governing could, and i think will, provide the pressure that will force peoole to overcome atomization. Atomization is the greatest impediment to socialism right now. It is so deeply ingrained that it is frankly going to have to be beaten out of people by experiencing a bit of the horror the US has been inflicting since before its founding. This combined with the weakening of US global power and the rise in power and legitimacy (in Westoid eyes) of the PRC is going to make socialism look like a winner to enough people to start things moving toward genuine socialist revolution.
The only things that upsets my projection is climate change, i can't really account for how its going to disrupt things, how quickly, when or where in the specific ways that ots going to happen. The other is the US doing a first strike, which could happen and would obviously be devastating.