this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2024
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I'm not convinced he'll do any serious level of tariffs. Too much American business relies on China to risk getting into a massive trade war. I think he'll do some strategic tariffs to benefit a couple industries and be able to say he won the trade war.
Talking about tariffs is good for him politically, good for the economy(people and businesses are making purchases early in anticipation of tariffs), and will bring in lobbying money from various industries that want protection, but an actual trade war will be devastating to the American economy broadly. I don't think the ruling class will let him do it.
The tariffs that are already in place are already serious and the ruling class won't impede Trump at all. What they'll do instead is compete to see who gets import waivers. That's the truth about the trade war against China and the rest of the world, those politically connected to the current administration end up getting cheap goods anyways while subjecting the american people at large to monopoly prices.
Ngl I was more worried a second Biden term would actually implement those tariffs than that Trump will. Since Biden’s whole presidency was “Actually accomplish what Trump said he would do”
i predict that the tariffs he implements will be based on how they would impact musk's businesses. cheap reliable chinese cars: 1000% tariff. electronic components musk needs to import to build stuff: no tariffs.