this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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GenZedong
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~~And I'm still over here hoping things get turned around. Syria hosts Russia's only port in the Mediterranean, as well as airfields, allowing Russia to project power into the Middle East and Africa. So far there have been no reports of Russia abandoning its bases (although some ships reportedly left).~~
~~The smart move for SAA would have been to retreat to a defensible position and then launch an insurgency against HTS. HTS is deemed a terrorist organisation and they do not enjoy the broad popular support like the Taliban do in Afghanistan, so they do not have the means for a protracted war or sustained conflict, meanwhile Russia can continue supplying SAA through the ports/airfields.~~
~~This would force the US/West to openly give support to people they have labeled terrorists, which would be a lose-lose for the US.~~
~~Putin said Russia isn't going to help SAA if they're not willing to fight for their country. Maybe I'm being naive, but I'm wondering if its a ploy to make SAA appear weak, Sun Tzu and all that.~~
~~Assad's family left weeks ago, so this wasn't such a surprise. Also, from what I've seen/read, the SAA didn't abandon equipment like the Afghan Army did when Taliban advanced. The SAA seems to have retreated with their vehicles, there is no sign of a rout. Remember, when Ukraine started pushing hard and fast on Kherson and Kharkov the Russians also abandoned their positions and retreated, giving up a lot of territory; Western media said it was over for Russia then.~~
~~The thought of Assad/Syria falling saddens me, but I'm not willing to give into doomerism yet.~~
Apparently it's over. Fucking sucks.
Still not giving into doomerisms though. HTS is a gang of thugs whose only "success" so far, that the Western media has been able to dig up, was them running Idlib "sort of, kind of okay" (and probably with Turkey's help) while recognising that they led a terror campaign against Kurds, Shia Muslims and anyone who opposed them. I don't think the people of Syria will accept HTS so easily. I could be wrong (again), but it gives me some hope that the HTS rule might be very short-lived.
That's incorrect, the SAA did abandon a ton of equipment, I think over 200 SAA tanks, including over 60 T-72s and 6 T-90s, were captured by various rebel factions undamaged. Over 900 pieces of equipment abandoned in total.
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Fuck. But will it be enough to hold a country embroiled in civil war, especially one as large as Syria?
Wasn't just HTS, they were being attacked from rebels in 2 other directions, from the South and Southeast. The rebels in the south had simliarly negotiated with Assad, but just a couple days ago started their offensive towards Damascus. Meanwhile cities which Assad held for years in the last civil war fell in days to HTS.
https://lemmygrad.ml/post/6428801
Some of it was salvaged by crossing into the Iraq border, but I've seen reports that it was also abandoned. https://x.com/adam7867863/status/1864306554314342850 https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1865594048284680445
Edit:
It's official, Assad resigns. - Russian Foreign Ministry
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-syrias-assad-has-left-country-given-orders-peaceful-power-handover-2024-12-08/
Well, I guess that's it then.