this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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GenZedong
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I doubt they lack materiel or personnel to help the SAA. It looks more like the SAA gave up, seeing as how they abandoned lots of equipment, though of course I could be wrong about all of this. Assad not even saying goodbye also makes me think that.
I'm really not clear whether Iran/Russia "abandoned" Syria or was it the other way around. The disaster is coming all the same
Kinda the latter, I think. Although it's more like Syria gave up on itself.
Apparently, years of relative peace weren't used wisely at all. Army is a mess and got poisoned with it's own propaganda about ISIS being as good as gome (because when army isn't a mess, it doesn't abandon city after city and base after base), very helpful in their time militias weren't incorporated...
As for the Russian involvement, I think it's the usual "we don't wanna be like the US, so we're not gonna involve ourselves in internal affairs, we were invited to fight islamists and that's all we'll do" song and dance with our government which invariably ends with mindboggling corruption and local elites selling themselves to the West or it's proxies, because that's how they've been living their entire lives, and if Kremlin doesn't fill the void and tell them what to do, someone will.
There is one interest of Russian capital there that I am a bit surprised didn't result in stronger involvement - planned gas pipelines from Quatar to Europe. Those were supposed to go through Syria. Maybe Gazprom and Kremlin know something and the region won't be stable enough for that now anyway, but I'm pretty sure the whole Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (terrorist as fuck) rebranding campaign going on right now begs to differ.
Mohammad Marandi was saying that Iran had mobilized forces into Syria to help, but Assad did not give Iran a green light to help defend. Apparently Iran wanted to provide assistance, but claims Assad changed positions a couple times and then abdicated. Very strange stuff.