this post was submitted on 11 Dec 2024
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'28 is generous I think, this shit is so expensive to run and if there's no profitable use case it'll crash sooner and harder than that
the real concern is that this is the tech industry's last shot, they got nothin' after this. all of the government research from the 80s is used up and there is no next product
Warning: vibes based post
So the way I see it the USA economy is propped up by 3 major legs: military, tech, and banking (real estate can be sorta folded into the banking category via a venn diagram).
Despite the importance of the tech leg it is also the least stable because of how it has been pivoted toward wholly digital "products" like AI or crypto or internet platforms. Digital dvertising is in this weird quasi-real category in that you need a physical device (phone, TV etc) to see it and you (mostly) need a real end product to be selling (cars, medicines, etc) but as the rise of digital goods and services accelerates the products are slipping into the ether.
So one of the major reasons that money is being dumped into tech is that it represents one of the only sectors where you can Winkle money out of thin air. You don't need a bomb factory or a plot of land. That means it has a growth potential. But it's just growth for the sake of growth. It doesn't really translate into real world things like other industries. Like you said, this is one of their last shots because other than these specious digital products they aren't making anything new. They're innovating (wink!) within the narrow confines of technology that was laid out decades ago. There's still progress being made, of course, but that real nuts and bolts R&D is now peripheral to the giant pump and dump scheme most tech is now operating on.
What does all this mean? It means there is a definite shelf life to all this. It will stagnate. And when it does plateau it will collapse like a black hole because the "growing for the sake of growing" was all it had. Take that away and there's nothing left behind the curtain. There will be no steady decline. The bubble will burst and it will be catastrophe.
It really seems like the powers that be find ways to keep things with no real life application going long past their time