this post was submitted on 01 Feb 2024
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Again i have to stress that this is not at all what i think Russia will do or even intends to do, but i personally think leaving a Nazified rump Ukraine is a bad idea. Thorough denazification on the whole territory of Ukraine has to occur for the sake of preventing conflicts like this in the future. And that cannot happen if they remain under a western proxy regime.
I think a lot of those who comment on this conflict are excessively worried about the possibility of insurgency or are squeamish about Russia or a de-nazified Ukrainian government having to take on the task of cleaning out the Nazis in western Ukraine. Firstly Russia has dealt with this problem before, they know how to suppress an insurgency if they really want to.
And secondly, this isn't the 1940s and 50s anymore, few people in this day and age in this part of the world are going to leave the comforts of modern life for years at a time to wage a guerilla war, especially after being thoroughly defeated in a war of attrition in which the most motivated and able fighters have been eliminated. Ukraine is not Afghanistan, its demographics (especially now), its social structures, its terrain, are not suitable for a prolonged insurgency of that kind.
And besides, not all who live there are Banderites, and those who are will fall largely into two categories: those who can and should be re-educated and de-radicalized after the model employed by China in Xinjiang, and those who cannot who will leave of their own accord rather than live under a union with Russia. Let them become the West's problem since the West loves Nazis so much. The few who insist on staying and causing trouble will be caught when they commit a crime. As i said, i think a country like Russia doesn't need to be afraid of tackling this issue, the only thing they lack imo is the political will at the moment.
I am also categorically opposed to allowing Poland to receive a single inch of Ukrainian territory as that sets a precedent that threatens Belarus. (And their historical claim is weak anyway, it is based on the illegitimate annexation of a territory that was never majority Polish to begin with, hence why the Curzon Line was drawn where it was after WWI.) Granting other countries' claims can be considered if and when they exit NATO and become friendly to Russia. Granting any NATO country territory to move even more NATO forward bases and weapons into should not happen.
Shit that's a good point about the terrain, Ukraine is basically gm_flatgrass
Well, there are some forests and a bit of mountains in the west (though the most mountainous regions are predominantly ethnically Hungarian where you won't find much support for a Ukrainian nationalist insurgency) with a few marshes in the north, but yeah most of it is fairly open in the center and the east.
But imo the biggest obstacle is the demographics. Even before the war they had way more old people than young people, and the fertility rate was already very low, and now both of those problems have gotten much, much worse. Many of the young men have left or are already dead or injured, and the birth rates are some of the lowest in the world and with little hope of recovery for the foreseeable future. This is a very stark contrast to the kinds of populations that can wage successful insurgencies, those whose demographic pyramids are heavily skewed toward the youth and where people have a lot of children and close knit social and family bonds. Neither Ukraine nor any other European country has that anymore (nor to be fair does Russia but they are not the ones who need to wage a guerilla war). We need to constantly repeat this for the libs who do not grasp this yet: Ukraine is not Afghanistan.
It depends. The flat areas of the steppe are located in the Southern and Eastern parts of the country. There's a substantial amounts of heavily forested areas in Northern and Central areas, similar to what Belarus has (which is understandable, given that Belarus is to the North of Ukraine and has a ton of forests and swamps).
There are also mountains in the West (where the Nazis mostly come from, by the way) - they constitute a part of the wider Carpathian Belt (the Carpathians).
Putin is not a socialist. Will they just be duganist? Maybe some basic lessons in humanity like killing ethnic minority civilians shouldn't be celebrated?
Putin can't and won't implement the solution i outlined. To do that it would take a Russian government that is not liberal, and that can only come after Putin.