Is Russia going to annex the majority of Ukraine (or even all of it)? And should they, or should a handpicked government be installed in Kiev instead? : asklemmygrad

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 9 months ago (2 children)

I'll give a disappointing answer which is that i don't know and i don't think anyone really knows right now.

The only two things i am sure of is that Russia will win and that it will not renounce the regions it has already annexed. Beyond that i don't know what will happen, and as for the intentions of the Kremlin i think several possibilities are still being kept open and which exactly of these they will choose will depend on how things continue to develop and how Ukraine and the West behave...that is whether they accept Russia's terms or not. If they refuse then Russia will have to go further and take more. How much more exactly and what will become of the rest of Ukraine i won't speculate on because too many factors are at play that are still unknown.

But i will say this about the topic of annexations: i think the best solution is not annexation but a restoration of a union of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine (that is a territorially reduced Ukraine because even in this scenario it is not getting the eastern territories back...the people there simply would never agree to it), but i also don't think that is going to happen under a bourgeois Russian government (though if the KPRF come to power after Putin retires we may see them eventually make a push in this direction).

[–] LeniX@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 9 months ago (1 children)

A socialist union, I might add. 😉

[–] relay@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Not with Putin but maybe later?

[–] LeniX@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 9 months ago

Yeah, I don't think Putin is going to be around at that point in time. He's in his 70s, after all.

[–] SadArtemis@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 9 months ago (1 children)

But i will say this about the topic of annexations: i think the best solution is not annexation but a restoration of a union of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine

Barring the fact this is almost definitely not going to happen- can the deeply "Ukranian" western Ukranians ever be trusted back into a union with the peoples they have repeatedly expressed the desire to torment, terrorize, and commit pogroms against, though?

It may not sound the most "pure" communist of me- and it's certainly not idealistic whatsoever- but if you ask me, the Banderites can live in whatever failed rump state remains; I imagine no sane Russian or Belarusian wants them as neighbors nowadays. In an ideal world they would probably even have little snippets carved off- some to Hungary, some to Poland, some to Romania- hell, even some to Slovakia even if it's just some puny snippet of the Carpathians.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (2 children)

Again i have to stress that this is not at all what i think Russia will do or even intends to do, but i personally think leaving a Nazified rump Ukraine is a bad idea. Thorough denazification on the whole territory of Ukraine has to occur for the sake of preventing conflicts like this in the future. And that cannot happen if they remain under a western proxy regime.

I think a lot of those who comment on this conflict are excessively worried about the possibility of insurgency or are squeamish about Russia or a de-nazified Ukrainian government having to take on the task of cleaning out the Nazis in western Ukraine. Firstly Russia has dealt with this problem before, they know how to suppress an insurgency if they really want to.

And secondly, this isn't the 1940s and 50s anymore, few people in this day and age in this part of the world are going to leave the comforts of modern life for years at a time to wage a guerilla war, especially after being thoroughly defeated in a war of attrition in which the most motivated and able fighters have been eliminated. Ukraine is not Afghanistan, its demographics (especially now), its social structures, its terrain, are not suitable for a prolonged insurgency of that kind.

And besides, not all who live there are Banderites, and those who are will fall largely into two categories: those who can and should be re-educated and de-radicalized after the model employed by China in Xinjiang, and those who cannot who will leave of their own accord rather than live under a union with Russia. Let them become the West's problem since the West loves Nazis so much. The few who insist on staying and causing trouble will be caught when they commit a crime. As i said, i think a country like Russia doesn't need to be afraid of tackling this issue, the only thing they lack imo is the political will at the moment.

I am also categorically opposed to allowing Poland to receive a single inch of Ukrainian territory as that sets a precedent that threatens Belarus. (And their historical claim is weak anyway, it is based on the illegitimate annexation of a territory that was never majority Polish to begin with, hence why the Curzon Line was drawn where it was after WWI.) Granting other countries' claims can be considered if and when they exit NATO and become friendly to Russia. Granting any NATO country territory to move even more NATO forward bases and weapons into should not happen.

[–] ShimmeringKoi@hexbear.net 3 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Shit that's a good point about the terrain, Ukraine is basically gm_flatgrass

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Well, there are some forests and a bit of mountains in the west (though the most mountainous regions are predominantly ethnically Hungarian where you won't find much support for a Ukrainian nationalist insurgency) with a few marshes in the north, but yeah most of it is fairly open in the center and the east.

But imo the biggest obstacle is the demographics. Even before the war they had way more old people than young people, and the fertility rate was already very low, and now both of those problems have gotten much, much worse. Many of the young men have left or are already dead or injured, and the birth rates are some of the lowest in the world and with little hope of recovery for the foreseeable future. This is a very stark contrast to the kinds of populations that can wage successful insurgencies, those whose demographic pyramids are heavily skewed toward the youth and where people have a lot of children and close knit social and family bonds. Neither Ukraine nor any other European country has that anymore (nor to be fair does Russia but they are not the ones who need to wage a guerilla war). We need to constantly repeat this for the libs who do not grasp this yet: Ukraine is not Afghanistan.

[–] LeniX@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

It depends. The flat areas of the steppe are located in the Southern and Eastern parts of the country. There's a substantial amounts of heavily forested areas in Northern and Central areas, similar to what Belarus has (which is understandable, given that Belarus is to the North of Ukraine and has a ton of forests and swamps).

There are also mountains in the West (where the Nazis mostly come from, by the way) - they constitute a part of the wider Carpathian Belt (the Carpathians).

[–] relay@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Putin is not a socialist. Will they just be duganist? Maybe some basic lessons in humanity like killing ethnic minority civilians shouldn't be celebrated?

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 9 months ago

Putin can't and won't implement the solution i outlined. To do that it would take a Russian government that is not liberal, and that can only come after Putin.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 22 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I expect Russia will annex most of Ukraine except the western territories where most nationalists are. Interestingly enough, we may see Hungary, Poland, and Romania jump on the annexation bandwagon as well at that point. All of them have been making noises at one time or another, and if it starts looking like Ukraine is falling over, they might decide to be opportunistic.

Best case scenario for Ukraine at this point is that it's going to be a nonfunctional rump state. Russia already annexed a lot of industrial and agricultural territory, and Putin just said that Russia will need a buffer to protect against long range NATO missiles. This implies that Russia is planning to turn a few hundred kilometres into a buffer zone. I doubt Putin would be publicly stating this if the decision wasn't already made.

[–] LeniX@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I suppose they could get opportunistic, though of course they'll have to deal with the Banderites and all the Nazis themselves. I wonder how much weaponry that "was lost to corruption" will suddenly pop up there.

Not to mention the migration crisis that might be created.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 12 points 9 months ago

Oh for sure! On the other hand, if these people made rational decisions then we wouldn't be where we are today in the first place.

[–] SadArtemis@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 9 months ago

I certainly hope they will, for the decent Ukranians' sake, if no one else's. Whatever is left is going to be Banderite-administered Blackrock fiefdom territory.

Certainly every eastern, Russian-identifying region should be liberated fully. If Kiev and surrounding area is too far gone, maybe it could be turned into a demilitarized zone. The Banderites should be wiped from the earth (like with all Nazis) but since that isn't going to happen, they should be contained to Galicia and Volhynia, nothing else; their very existence is already an insult to any sense of decency and humanity and the lives of tens of millions.

[–] ledlecreeper27@lemmygrad.ml 17 points 9 months ago

The country has been divided between east and west for decades and I doubt Russia would want to permanently annex any of the western regions. It seems like they are focusing on the east for now.

I think they should allow regions in the east to join Russia if they want to and the rest of Ukraine should stay independent but should be required to denazify and never join NATO. They should also reimplement some of the Minsk agreements if some eastern parts decide to stay in Ukraine.

[–] ShimmeringKoi@hexbear.net 13 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I think they want a buffer zone at least, so I expect that in any event, annex or no, they'll try and force some kind of concession from Ukraine where NATO membership is an instant red line. Other than that I have no idea

I could see them taking Odessa though

Actually now that I think about it, the recent NATO saber rattling means that taking Odessa and cutting Ukraine off from the sea now is the smart thing to do. If the Euro vassal states are serious about beating the war drum, the prospect of having to attack through a landlocked region while their enemy controls the sea might be enough of a deterrent to change their calculus.

[–] darkcalling@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

As mentioned by Yogthos, Putin has decreed due to repeated use of long-range western weapons for terror attacks on civilians they need a buffer zone.

I think at this point the 3 eastern secessionist territories that have formally joined Russia are going to be part of Russia, that's simply off the table. What Putin is now threatening is to seize more of the country. I believe he is doing this because it may actually be necessary and also in an attempt to give them something to bargain over with the west and the Ukraine in negotiations. Basically a threat, that they've already lost these territories and are not getting them back, that's off the table but if they don't come to the table, be reasonable, meet Russia's original demands then they will lose a lot more but if they are willing to meet them Russia will almost certainly guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine minus the break-away regions part of Russia already legally and of course Crimea.

Things are getting interesting again because I read the EU money for $50billion of money for weapons and such for the Ukraine has cleared and honestly I do expect Biden to give the Republicans enough of a sweetheart deal on the border that they agree to his package for Ukraine. He might have to settle for a watered down version that only gives them enough funding to last through part of the rest of his term but I believe he'll get them something even if he has to personally go to the Mexican border and bayonet a child on camera. Then again there is a chance, slim but growing that Trump pressures the congressional Republicans not to give him a thing because they want to use the border thing as a talking point for their base and giving him a win in any way waters down that talking point.

The ball has been in the west's court for some time as to what happens. Russia has to stay the course though there are more and less ideal end-games and short of a coup in Ukraine against the western puppets the less desireable end-state is more likely. Europe is talking of war and it seems like they are genuinely gearing up to throw themselves at Russia within 4-5 years after they've had time to replenish and re-arm themselves. The US may actually push them into this as their Ukraine plan and sanctions have failed to take Russia out and they want Russia out of the picture for their confrontation with China. Maybe they have Europe attack Russia and weaken and drain them and they in turn gather their Asian pawns and instigate over Taiwan and attack China or maybe it's just taking out Europe as a competitor and possible partner for China/Russia while also suicide-running and counting on taking out at least Russia for a time with them.

[–] LarkinDePark@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I'm not going to pretend I'm knowledgeable on the subject but opinions I think are well reasoned are contained in this article. (March 2022) Just linking it for the purposes of discussion.

Also this one (May 2023):

Mearsheimer expects that Russia, which already has incorporated four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea, will take another four oblast from Ukraine. (I predicted this on February 24 2022, the day the war began. Those eight oblast plus Crimea are historically Russian land inhabited by Russian people. During the last thirty years they have consistently voted for pro-Russian candidates while the people in west Ukraine consistently opted for anti-Russian candidates.) Ukraine will end up as a dysfunctional (and poor) rump state.

And finally: (December 2023)

There will be no terror for Ukraine, just the loss of the ethnic Russian people, industries and land the communist - Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev - had for whatever reasons attached to it. The rest of it will be a smaller, more poor and purely agricultural rump state without access to the sea. This was obvious from the very beginning to anyone with a clear view of the balance of the forces involved in the war.

I know this is all the same website, but it's citing and aggregating different sources for its opinions. It's also not at all Marxist analysis but it needn't necessarily be for these immediate purposes.

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 5 points 9 months ago

Nah, they'll lib out.

Their realistic not shit win condition is (non-puppeted) maidan 3.0. Otherwise they'll continue to stand around

[–] FamousPlan101@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Russia will take more territories and whatever they choose to leave over (that also doesn't fall to Poland/Hungary/Romania) will be occupied and denazified for a couple years with a favourable government.

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