this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2023
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If the US is no longer in a position to prop up the monarchy then what do you reckon China's response will be. They seem keen to maintain the status quo and not act like the word police. But would they prop up the monarchy to keep things stable or what?
The Al-Saud family maintained their position in the 20th century through splitting their oil wealth/affluence with the Americans, and securing an American outpost in the region. The USA got reliable control over the oil market and a strategic base of operations; the Sauds got the protection of a superpower in case foreign or domestic enemies threatened to topple them. A more democratic government would be less friendly to American privilege.
I don't think China would put a military base in Saudi Arabia and I can't imagine them giving military aid. Without these, the monarchy would be short-lived.
If America withdrew, I think the CPC would adopt a hands-off approach, let things take their course, and be ready to do business with the new government, similar to how things went in Afghanistan.