this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2023
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The Al-Saud family maintained their position in the 20th century through splitting their oil wealth/affluence with the Americans, and securing an American outpost in the region. The USA got reliable control over the oil market and a strategic base of operations; the Sauds got the protection of a superpower in case foreign or domestic enemies threatened to topple them. A more democratic government would be less friendly to American privilege.
I don't think China would put a military base in Saudi Arabia and I can't imagine them giving military aid. Without these, the monarchy would be short-lived.
If America withdrew, I think the CPC would adopt a hands-off approach, let things take their course, and be ready to do business with the new government, similar to how things went in Afghanistan.