this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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GenZedong
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There are definitely a lot of really horrific scenarios that open up if the west keeps escalating. I don't think stuff like f16s is going to really make much of a difference though. The real escalation would be NATO countries getting directly involved. In particular, there's been talk of making a coalition with Poland and some Baltic countries that would be outside of NATO. However, once they're in trouble then there will be a lot of pressure for the rest of NATO to get involved.
On the other hand, there is continued discontent with the way the war is going in the west, and the economic situation in western countries continues to unravel. So, the west may be forced to pull out in the end. I imagine that democrats will not want to have the war hanging over them during the election, so they may decide that whatever political damage they suffer is best to absorb now.
Also agree that we may see a lot of regime change happening in Europe. Anti war parties are gaining popularity in a lot of countries, and as recession deepens support for current regimes will wither.
I certainly can't see Russia agreeing to any sort of a freeze though. That would simply allow NATO to rearm Ukraine and effectively brings things back to where they were before the war. Now that Russia has committed itself to the war, they will see it through to the end.
The best case scenario is likely for the west to implode economically so that the rest of the world can move on.
For the US at this point, though, the war is still in the "let's tint our profile pictures" phase. There is little direct human exposure, and the military consequences basically amount to queuing up future orders for defence contractors.
One thing that's been learned from Viet Nam/Iraq/Afghanistan is that it's a lot less politically toxic to not get to a state where you're shipping home your own in pine boxes. So the "supply and bankroll from a distance" model can sort of work, at least as a cute little cause to stand behind, as long as Ukranians and willing volunteers from abroad are willing to do the actual dying.
There's also the other side of the coin-- as much as Russia is cast as the aggressor, why isn't the Ukranian leadership also culpable for not looking for the fastest deal to end hostilities? Having the Overpromoted Comedian going on world tours and insisting he'll never give up a square centimetre of land is hardly an open invitation to a negotiation table. At some point, does he cease to be "heroic" and instead become "obstinate" and a net cause of more suffering for his countrymen?
I think there is already a severe economic impact in US, but people aren't linking it to the war yet. It's very likely US will be in a recession next year, and that's when people are going to start getting more rowdy I expect.
Given that the fabled offensive is looking like a complete disaster, it's not clear what the plan in the west is going to be. I expect things will continue to get worse for Ukraine militarily, an the west is now out of supplies to give. Meanwhile, the economic situation is turning against the west as well.