this post was submitted on 13 Apr 2024
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No way they'll rebuild industries in the West. Those are dead and too costly.
They'll probably try to replace China with a non-Communist, hyper-Capitalist client state like India. But India is part of BRICS and may be moving away from that type of relation, so they might have to find someone else. Just move most industry there. Hopefully the same shit happens again though. It is a total self-own.
They can't. India isn't built like China. Modi is desperately trying to roll out the infrastructure for massive industrialisation but there's a ways to go, and India's level of literacy and education are far below what is necessary for factory production on a Chinese scale. The only reason China could become the factory of the world is because the communists first made sure everybody on China had a good education. India is decades behind where China was in the 70s on these measures.
And there's nowhere else to go. Vietnam is too small, Indonesia too disparate and unconnected. The trap has been set, there's no way out.
There is no trap, this is a response to the US banning Chinese processors. They're being hoisted by their own petard.
The trap I'm referring to is the more long term one of basing the entire manufacturing might of the capitalist world in a communist country, but it's a trap they've walked into with open eyes.
They seem to always trot out Viet Nam as the trendy new offshoring choice, but I can't inagine that scaling as well, and won't it be tempting for them to use the exact same economic jiu-jitsu China did if the foreigners get dependent?
I wonder if we'll see a new wave of making Latin America a safe harbour for ~~democracy~~ western extractive business? It's more developed than starting from square 1 in Africa or Asia, and the CIA already has a Rolodex full of old friends they can crash with.
My initial thought was Latin America as well.
But maybe it's an unsafe bet as they fluctuate with their Red/Pink waves.
my bet is indonesia
Any particular reason? I know almost nothing about Indonesia, but between the Jakarta method, literally needing to move their capital due to climate change caused by western industrialization, and even more recently with the massive pro Palestine rallies, it seems like an awkward time for American companies to make moves there.
There's probably a lot of American companies already operating there though, and i don't know what their government is like. As someone with little to no context Indonesia would just be a surprising choice.
it's mostly vibes, i see a lot of shit being made there and it's asian country that's not too insanely developed, capitalist, and cucked by the US. it obviously doesn't matter what the people think there
That could be it.