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I'd love to say it will change the likely outcome, but I'm pretty sure no candidate has ever been subbed in this late in the race and gone on to win. History says people prefer a known quantity. Even if Harris is the new candidate, people don't pay attention to VPs, so she is kind of an unknown quantity to your average voter. AFAIK she hasn't participated in any "proper" debates with Trump
On the other hand, assuming it is Harris, the right's attacks on her are likely to be a lot more openly bigoted, which will lead to less people wanting to vote Republican. The Republicans tend to do better when the criticisms of their opponents are based on something legitimately concerning, like Biden's age. We are about to see some incredibly disgusting rhetoric from republicans, and it's liable to make them less popular. Much as I dislike all establishment neoliberal democrats, I have to say I feel sorry for Harris for what she is about to endure if she becomes the nominee. The right has gotten a lot more bold in their willingness to take the mask off since Obama was president, so if you thought the shit he had to wade through was bad, it's nothing compared to what they will fling at Harris.
The biggest thing at this point is that it's way too late to have a primary, so whoever is selected, they will be subjected to the very legitimate criticism that they were simply appointed as the nominee by the DNC. That would have basically been true even if there was a primary, but at the very least the primaries create the illusion of a democratic process. People aren't going to be psyched to vote for Biden's last minute substitute.
I sure am. Considering the filthy alternative.
They're already dusting off the ole Obama birther playbook and asking if she's qualified to be President due to citizenship.
Actually the presidential candidate was selected on the day of the convention up until around 1970. They had conventions that would last days, they would lock the doors until a candidate was picked. Then ideally everyone stacked behind the final candidate.
I'm pretty sure there was actually almost a contested convention in like 1980. So no, this is objectively wrong and a bit of a modern convention.
It's been true for roughly the last half a century that there has been a clear presumptive candidate going into the general. And in any case, the purpose of a primary is to select the candidate. As I said I think it's going to be detrimental that Harris hasn't actually won a primary, even though the primaries are a sham.
Doing more research, candidates that were picked from contested conventions are absolutely less likely to win in historically.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/
So close enough with a candidate as strong with his party as Trump.
Exactly. It's extremely late in the game for this to happen. I believe Biden absolutely needed to not run for a second term, but he should have made that decision a year ago, not a few months before the general election. The stubbornness of the DNC has likely doomed the US to a second Trump presidency. I hope I'm wrong though.