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The countries that are the most likely to turn ML, according to me (lemmygrad.ml)
submitted 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) by KrupskayaPraxis@lemmygrad.ml to c/comradeship@lemmygrad.ml
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Belarus: I could see CPB taking over when Lukashenko isn't in charge anymore.

Burkina Faso: Their prime-minister seems to be a communist. Hopefully this means working towards a socialist state.

Cyprus: AKEL is one of the main opposition parties in Cyprus and their candidate for presidency went to the runoff election this year.

Greece: KKE is one of the main opposition parties and they keep growing.

Haiti: There are some revolutionary organisations involved in the protests against the government, maybe they'll succeed.

Swaziland: The CPS is the main opposition to the king's rule.

Taiwan: through reunification with PRC.

What others seem likely to you?

EDIT: I remembered South Africa is a candidate as well, the EFF is getting stronger

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[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 27 points 10 months ago

On the ones you mentioned:

Belarus and Burkina Faso maybe. Cyprus and Greece definitely not, they are too deeply embedded in the West's system. And Haiti and Swaziland are very unlikely, seeing as there is already looming imperialist intervention in Haiti and i don't know much about Swaziland but the monarchy seems pretty stable there.

Taiwan reunification is an inevitability. It's not a question of if it's just when.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 22 points 10 months ago

I expect Belarus is very likely as well because they have increasingly strong ties with China now, and they're already nominally communist. Also agree that Taiwan reunification is inevitable at this point.

[-] MatBC@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 10 months ago

I think saying a definitely not, may be too hard a swing to the other side as well, the revolution is always our goal and I believe there is always room for hope, might be further in the future of closer to the present, but it should always be on the horizon, and who knows, revolutions are very hard to predict, situations change opportunities come along unexpectedly, but my problem with the parameter the comrade used for measuring likelyhood of such is electoral, and popularity of parties are not the best of measurements, the organization of the population I think is the best one, and burkina faso seems to have people supporting the anti imperialist movement there, but in Greece, the popularity of a party does not necessarily mean the population is organizing towards a change, it is a start but a timid one if you ask me, but it's always nice to see. Again the road we need to build pave and walk on is the organization of the people, it needs to come from the ones on the base of the system, while the ones most affected by the exploitation are still blind by capitalism's shining lights it is never going to be a revolution, the job of the ones of us ML's that are not in that situation is to befriend support and help those that are, to find the shades and see that the lights hide their own oppression and the fact that they are strong, and have all the tools to build their own freedom.

[-] GrainEater@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 10 months ago

I strongly doubt any country in Europe will have a successful socialist revolution until US imperialism is dismantled

(Taiwan is not a country by any definition)

[-] KrupskayaPraxis@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 10 months ago

Not even Belarus?

[-] GrainEater@lemmygrad.ml 10 points 10 months ago

In terms of self-defense post-revolution: possibly, if it retained a defensive pact with Russia. Whether a revolution is feasible in the next few decades, I can't say

[-] ghost_of_faso2@lemmygrad.ml 18 points 10 months ago

Burkina Faso: Their prime-minister seems to be a communist. Hopefully this means working towards a socialist state.

Add to this the recent countries supporting Niger in a coup, which includes BF and more importantly, Angola, an already existing ML state.

I think we might see a ML super state crop up in the region with an alliance of ML/socialist african countries in the NW and west of Africa.

[-] starhonker@lemmygrad.ml 21 points 10 months ago

While I agree with this, Angola is no longer an ML state, it was changed to social democracy on their 3rd congress in December of 1990. Perhaps it has more revolutionary potential though.

[-] ghost_of_faso2@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 10 months ago

Thanks for the context, I didnt know that; critical support still though.

[-] Alunyanners@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

wasn't the MPLA pressurized into becoming more succdem? thanks to the CIA doing CIA things and forcing a civil war in socialist angola

i feel like once usania falls the MPLA could switch back to their original ML self, as it seems like they only liberalized themselves so that the civil war finally stops

[-] starhonker@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 10 months ago

Unlike some political parties which used Marxism-Leninism as a cover to gain support in their national liberation struggles, I certainly hold the belief that the MPLA's was authentic in nature. I think naturally of course given the time period of the change, it was during the fall of the Soviet Union, and like most communist parties ideas were being re-evaluated. There's a trend among many communist parties around the world that have transitioned to social-democratic beliefs because of the perceived failures, and the large wave of reaction that followed. I do think the party structure hasn't changed too much, hypothetically some faction could knock the social democrats out, but given the momentum of the largest opposition party UNITA, it's looking more and more unlikely. I feel like the KPRF is more likely to go "Marxist-Leninist" again before I could imagine the MPLA doing so, but who knows.

[-] redtea@lemmygrad.ml 6 points 10 months ago

o7

Would love to see it.

[-] DankZedong@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 10 months ago

Colombia

[-] KrupskayaPraxis@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 10 months ago

How so?

[-] DankZedong@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 10 months ago

My understanding is that they have a growing left wing movement. My place of work materially and financially supports Colombian Unions and the developments seem positive.

Not sure if it wil turn out to be ML per se, but I wouldn't count Colombia out from turning into a left wing stronghold.

[-] Alunyanners@lemmygrad.ml 12 points 10 months ago

why isn't nicaragua listed

[-] Kirbywithwhip1987@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 10 months ago

Russia after Putin

[-] Kuhelika@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 10 months ago

Not possible. There aren’t any significant real communist parties in Russia

[-] Kirbywithwhip1987@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 10 months ago

CPRF is literally the second largest party after the ruling one

[-] Henkire@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 10 months ago

Controlled opposition. Plus, it's a shell of a proper communist party.

[-] JoeDaRedTrooperYT@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

I don't see the Philippines being ML since PKP-Sison is the biggest one and the OG PKP fell off

this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2023
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