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lol. Okay, “young people.” If you don’t vote for Biden, you get Trump. And it won’t be the “burn it down and rebuild it” you think it will. It will be right-wing totalitarianism for the next hundred years.
I don’t like it any more than you do. But sometimes our choices are limited.
Well, in his defense, the burn it down part is true.
In all seriousness, he’s already caused damage that far outlasted his term. The Supreme Court, District court, and Appeals court appointments will affect them for decades. His environmental and industrial regulations repeals will take over a decade to reenact. His tax reform exploitatively widened the already oppressive wealth inequality. We may not fully recover from a second term in their lifetime.
That's what everyone kept saying in 2016, but he didn't destroy the oligarchy. He raided the coffers and shat in the well water. His destruction of the status quo was entirely self-serving, and he left in place all of the systems he could abuse to benefit himself at the expense of everyone else.
Few people realized how much damage he caused until after he left office. He created a noise screen in the news like a magician diverting your attention.
Proof in point: We're still suffering from the lingerings of Reaganomics. Both Bushs caused their own shifts against a progressive society, often by throwing out things built up by the previous administration to improve things. Trump did a lot of things too, but the ironic one is where he dismantled the very things that GWB helped create to fight worldwide pandemics (credit to George there for reading a book, asking his advisors how true it was, and doing something).
All it takes is one Supreme Court nomination during Trump’s term and we’re fucked for that much longer. There’s a good chance Thomas dies in the next 4 years, do we really want 40 more years of some young right wing radical in that seat?
I think that’s what young people really don’t get. It’s not just 4 bad years (although even that argument is a pretty privileged thing to say).
Thomas won't even have to die. If Trump wins you can be sure we'll see at least 1 resignation and replacement. They aren't going to make the same mistake that RBG made, especially since they've had their eye on the ball when it comes to packing the courts with conservative judges at every level for decades.
Everything is in place for Trump to perform an autocratic authoritarian takeover of America. People need to be mentally prepared to fight or flight.
He repealed 112 environmental regulations in one term and wrote a record 220 Executive Orders, without any familiarity with the job of holding office, and during a pandemic. Imagine how much more effective he’ll be at destroying our progress this time around.
A lot of people can’t understand 10 years in the future. Our animal inside wants now now now. Gotta store up for winter.
The problem with the Democrats is they are poorly selling the future, while the Republicans are “promising” the now, at the expense of the future.
If we get Trump, I'm fairly certain we won't have another real national election again. It'll be like Russia with massive "voter fraud" bills and EOs passed that completely neuter the ability to vote. The treasonous Project 2025 would gut the government and we'll probably get that Schedule F bullshit that brings back the spoils system.
So while Biden is wonderful (he's done a bunch of good stuff recently at least), Trump is so far down the fascist ladder there really isn't any choice. I'm not excited to vote for Biden, I'm terrified of Trump being elected.
It's definitely worrying as I sit here North of my American brothers and sisters, to see the sheer amount of "Yeah but Biden sucks". Sure 100% agree, but you're welcoming in Orange Hitler if you don't vote, or vote Republican.
So definitely worrying sleeping beside this particular elephant.
The elephant will do damage to the whole fuckin world if he gets elected, including but not limited to wielding the military in a way that I bet will cause disasters we didn't even really have on the radar as possibilities before they arrived.
So don't worry. Being close up to the carnage probably won't make it any worse, and being far away wouldn't make it any safer.
including but not limited to wielding the military in a way that I bet will cause disasters we didn't even really have on the radar as possibilities before they arrived.
Everyone who paid attention during 2020 and has read the Project 2025 plans should know that this will happen.
But it doesn't even have to be malicious, though he will for sure be malicious, stupidity is enough. A million people died because Covid was so much worse here than it could've been, all because he was too petty to say "Put on a mask, save your country" which his base would've inevitably eaten up.
But no, his stupidity caused a million avoidable deaths.
I dislike doubting polls, but there's just some odd stuff in here.
This is a poll of just the 5 key states, but this part of their methodology gives me significant pause as well: "To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. "
Emphasis mine. There could be a huge skew. And these results don't make sense. The other NYT poll from several months ago was also incredibly unusual and had very weird findings -- to the point that the Guardian wrote something was very fucky with the results.
This isn't to say this can't be what's going on, but we need corroboration from other polling groups. And it isn't summer yet, which makes polls rather inaccurate too.
TLDR: Something's fucky, we need more information and to monitor this.
EDIT: I just want to use my bully pulpit here to say that my criticisms by no means disprove the poll results. There's oddities, but that doesn't make the results an impossibility. Don't only give credence to criticism of polls. If someone has reasons they believe the poll is accurate, you should give equal attention to it. At the end of the day, we don't know what the actual truth is, and we won't until the election is over. Just remember that we don't want to just win, we want to dominate. We want massive margins. And that means we need to see wins even in less than accurate polls.
we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree
Oooooohhh
All of sudden it makes sense
Here's their methodology page, with in addition to that fuckin fascinating tidbit you quoted, some other things of note:
It is, indeed, always possible.
To be clear, polling theory is totally valid and an established science within statistics.
But the challenge is always with methodology, because you can never get a perfect simple random sample. And the methodology here certainly seems terrible.
Something fucky is going on. From the page:
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were
Then it lists the usual suspects including third parties. The only age group for that question voting for Biden is 65 and older. Maybe so, but that doesn't seem right.
I suspect that out of the 2% of people who answered the phone (and the smaller percentage that stayed on for the whole poll), there were some number of young people whose parents answered the phone and then answered all the poll questions for them, or something weird like that.
Maybe not. But in general, the whole methodology starts to look like a big pile of garbage the closer you look at it. It's not surprising for some answers to come out of it that are very obviously wrong.
A lot of polls have been putting RFK Jr at 10+ percent. There are a ton of low-information voters who see the name and not much else
I voted for Clinton with a funeral dirge in my heart at an empty polling place. Then I voted for Biden.
I despise Neoliberals. I'm a socialist. If I can swallow my pride and volunteer to be fucked with no lube instead of being hit by a fascist freight train yet again, you can too.
That said, this country is over, Rejecting the Reagan giveaway was the last chance to begin righting this ship now halfway under water from decades of celebrated antisocial avarice made legal. I'm voting Biden to minimize needless cruelty and scapegoating of vulnerable groups as we collapse from capitalist greed rot and firesale. That is the extent of our vote's power as our owners bought both parties on economic policy allegiance decades ago, so be kind with it.
We don't need to collapse AND have our chosen Nero in the white house using their bully pulpit to blame it on everyone from undocumented immigrants to pregnant women to lgbtq, etc and getting them murdered in the streets for what Wall Street profiteers, safe in their guarded towers and luxury bunkers, have wrought.
The impending food shortages and mass homelessness crises will be bad enough.
I will vote as every serous socialist in America has since debs lost, as far left as can win. Every capitalist will bring the crisis of capitalism
If Biden and Trump really are tied among Gen Z voters, I'm afraid Gen Z voters just don't understand the American election system. If we don't get Biden, we get Trump, which would be infinitely worse for most of the causes they are angry with Biden on.
40% of voters are Gen Z or Millenial...
Throw in Gen X and it's the majority
I wish the DNC started treated them as the main chunk of Dem voters and not a bunch of spoiled children for wanting politicians that represent them instead of their grandparents
It should be comically easy to beat trump, but people just don't like elderly neoliberals, because of their policies, actions, and often lack of actions.
Republicans in the courts and the legislation block anything that helps those key demographics the article talks about
"bIdEn IsN't DoInG eNoUgH!!"
I've said it before and I'll keep saying it again and again; of course you don't like the Democrat candidate; but you've got to swallow your damned medicine or the outcome will be exponentially worse.
Yeah, I voted for Hillary. I hate her so goddamn much. But you know who I hate more? The orange asshole. So I did what I had to do, I swallowed my anger and voted for the bitch. No protest vote, no skipping out on it, just sucking it up and doing what had to be done. If more people had followed my example, and the example of many others, we wouldn't be rapidly watersliding dowe the lubed-up slope to outright, unapologetic fascism.
This is extremely concerning, not just because of the reality, but the reaction to this news. We should all be terrified, not because young people are too stupid to vote against Republicans, but because Democrats are blaming voters for their fuckups. This is the same fucking bullshit Hillary pulled in 2016, and it's why she shat the bed so hard and left us with the Cheeto Mussolini.
IT'S THE CANDIDATE'S JOB TO WIN VOTES!!
Joe Biden isn't a reluctant general lifted out of obscurity by the adoring masses. He wanted this job, fought really hard to get it, and now it is his responsibility to win reelection. And it's really important that he does, because Trump was a terrible president and will be worse the second time around.
If you're mad about this news story, you should direct your anger at the party and the candidate. Being mad at Gen Z for choosing not to fall in line is like being mad at drivers in traffic. Sure, if we all slow down and leave more space to avoid excessive braking, we can avoid a lot of traffic and have more time to sing kumbaya together. That's not a productive avenue for fixing the problem.
Donald Trump is literally on trial for fraud. This shouldn't even be close. If Biden can't win in a landslide, it's because Joe Biden sucks, not because the youth are entitled, bourgeois, ignorant, lazy, or any of the other insults being thrown around in this comment thread.
Counterpoint: If Biden can pass the biggest infrastructure bill since the New Deal, the biggest climate bill ever, erase tens of billions of dollars of student debt, pull us out of the pandemic economy without a major crash, put together a global coalition to help Ukraine fight against Russian imperialism, reschedule cannabis, etc., then I'm going to blame the stupid voters for not (a) recognizing his achievements and (b) not recognizing the threat that Trump and the Republicans pose to our democracy and the global climate.
Biden has a razor-thin majority in the Senate and has no control of the House. Trump has already personally appointed 33% of the SCOTUS, and has another 66% eating out of the palm of his hand. And people are going to hand our country to the Republicans again (even though they are openly speaking out against democracy every fucking day) because... why...? Because there isn't peace in the middle east and somehow that's Biden's fault?
I'll accept your premise at face value, let's say he has accomplished a lot. Personally, I'd like to see him doing more, but let's set that aside and say that his accomplishments would be enough to win the support of the progressive youths, and yet it hasn't. The problem is still not with the "stupid" voters failing to recognize Biden's achievements or the existential threat Trump represents. It's still Biden's job to sell it to the voters. It's up to Biden and his campaign to put those issues front and center, to talk about what he's trying to do and what his vision is for America. If he isn't getting the message out, then he is failing at one of the critical aspects of his job.
But really, I don't think the problem is messaging. I think the problem is that Biden isn't the guy people want him to be. He's a moderate neoliberal who backs progressive issues when he believes it will help him in the polls. I think he doesn't put those issues front and center or push very hard or make persuasive arguments because he doesn't want to piss off the center (or his donors).
Biden has a problem with the House. Why hasn't he done more to push progressive candidates in downticket races? Biden has a problem with the court. Why isn't he packing the court and working to eliminate corruption? We still have a massive infrastructure debt, catastrophic climate change, crippling economic inequality.
Yes, his half measures are better than the swift kick in the balls that comprises the Republican agenda. But he needs to recognize that he isn't fighting hard enough to win the support of people who are looking down the barrel of extinction. That's not hyperbole. My generation doesn't expect to retire, and the next generation doesn't expect humanity to survive. They're not having kids because the future is that bleak.
Are they stupid? Sure, of course. Kids are often stupid. We were stupid. Our parents were stupid. If Biden is shocked that he has to convince stupid people to vote, then who's really stupid? Sometimes you gotta make the airplane noise to get kids to eat their vegetables. Biden isn't even trying, though. He's blaming them, calling them anti-Semitic, and acting entitled to our votes.
He needs to win. You think it's frustrating to see stupid people vote for a third party in protest? Imagine how frustrating it is to watch the Biden campaign drive young voters towards third parties.
If Biden is shocked that he has to convince stupid people to vote, then who’s really stupid? Sometimes you gotta make the airplane noise to get kids to eat their vegetables.
I like this bit in particular.
Biden isn’t even trying, though. He’s blaming them, calling them anti-Semitic, and acting entitled to our votes.
I don't really blame Biden. He's part of a giant political machine that has been shit at messaging since 1980. Democrats seem to be lead by the sort of try-hard, type-A, rule-follower nerds who were in Student Government in high school. They can't relate to normal folks, and then resort to insults and guilt to get them to do something.
I believe, if I were an oligarch, I would want to craft an opposition party that looked and acted exactly the way Democrats have since Carter. I would push out progressives and independents, and I would back centrists and pragmatists who claim we can't really have anything good unless we first settle for better.
The problem is that, for the first time possibly ever, that is precisely the situation we have. If Trump wins, we're all of us fucked. Biden is the only man who ca possibly beat him.
And yes I can blame Biden for his failings. He's been a politician for longer than I've been alive. He should be better at this.
Nope, but that was a nice try to trivialize the actual problems.
The problem is Biden sending American weapons, paid for with American tax money, to another country to use to indiscriminately kill civilians.
I’m not even going to claim that they want to kill all the gazans.
They were too loose with how they were using them. Too many civilians were being killed, 35,000 minus 15,000, using Israel’s terrorist death count, leaves 20,000 innocents killed in about 6-7 months
blah blah blah, don't listen to the new york times about polling right now, it's all for clicks, not for any actually substances of truth.
New York Times doing its thing again
Presenting the poll results for registered voters, with candidates limited to Biden or Trump with no RFK involved, both of which are decisions which will swing things towards Trump and away from reality, is a decision that I'm hard pressed to explain any other way than that they're looking for the worst numbers they can present.
It's not even like the answers to the more accurate question were even any better for Biden. To me they look more or less the same (i.e. serious trouble for Biden). My only explanation is that a lot of these likely voters don't know their ass from their elbow (e.g.
Oooooh
This is interesting.
Look at the question "What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?"
It leads off with:
... and then, way down below, is "The state of democracy/corruption" (with 6% still bucking the trend to vote for it), and "The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians" (2%).
Lo and behold, a whole lot of people voted for one of the first two options, and also tended to answer questions about how they felt about the economy overall, and whether they felt overall happy with how things were going, accordingly.
I would be interested to see how this poll was presented exactly (especially whether written or verbal, and what order for the questions), and what the numbers would be if there was a similar weight of questioning and emphasis given to "The state of democracy/corruption" as a major issue. Maybe the results would be the same. Maybe not. I'd be interested to see it.
(Edit: Someone else sussed it out better than I did; their methodology was actually much worse and more explicitly slanted than that.)