this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2024
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Summary

The 2024 presidential election saw record-high turnout nearing 2020 levels, with over 152 million ballots cast.

Donald Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, defying conventional wisdom that high turnout benefits Democrats.

Key swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania had increased turnout, with Trump outperforming Kamala Harris in battlegrounds despite her strong voter mobilization.

The GOP’s focus on early and mail voting, as well as targeting infrequent voters, proved effective, signaling a shift in Republican turnout strategies in the Trump era.

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[–] Carrolade@lemmy.world 59 points 11 hours ago (3 children)

The 2024 presidential election saw record-high turnout

nearing 2020 levels

Is it just me or do these two statements directly contradict each other?

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 2 points 2 hours ago

3rd highest turnout since 1900 is a bronze metal and absolutely one for the record books.

[–] Lasherz12@lemmy.world 32 points 11 hours ago

You're right. This reeks of choosing your narrative before looking at the data to me.

[–] someguy3@lemmy.world 47 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

Trump basically got the same number of votes as 2020. Someone else didn't show up.

[–] Kernal64@sh.itjust.works 9 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

No he didn't. At last count, he's sitting at 77.4 million votes, which is a little more than 3 million more votes than he got in 2020 (74.2).

[–] EleventhHour@lemmy.world 11 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Compared to the nearly 11m dems who stayed home this election, it’s not that much.

[–] Kernal64@sh.itjust.works -4 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

Where did you get that 11 million number? Vote totals so far are a little more than 5 million short of 2020. Everyone keeps talking about 11 million, 15 million, 20 million people who stayed home and I think it's frankly a way to cope with the hard and gross truth that the country shifted right. Some people stayed home this year, but from all the sources I can see, it's nowhere near 11 million, and the fascist candidate increasing his vote totals every year is very alarming. I get people who don't want to face that. It's scary as hell, especially if you're in an out group. In my traditionally deeply blue state, the split gap between Harris and The Fanta Menace was like 55/45. That's WAY too close for comfort and while people staying home is a problem, it's not the main problem this time around.

[–] yeahiknow3@lemmings.world 3 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago) (2 children)

First of all, we had close to 100 million eligible non-voters. “Didn’t vote” is definitely the winner of this election. Secondly, those numbers are from projections and statistics. At least 10 million democrats who should have voted, didn’t.

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago

How do you know they were Democrats and not independents?

[–] Kernal64@sh.itjust.works 0 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

The people that always stay home weren't gonna come out. They never do. 2020 is said to have had historic levels of turnout and it had 2/3rds of eligible voters coming out to vote. I wouldn't count on that last third who always sits out to suddenly realize they're screwing themselves and everyone else. I still don't know where the 10 million number is coming from. Who's projections and statistics? Would it be the same people who projected that despite a close race, Harris would be the likely winner? I'm not sure they're all that credible at the moment. I think people shifted right and I think that sucks a lot. I wish I had a solution, but I don't. There were any number of good reasons to come out and vote for Harris, or at least against FatPutin, but here we are.

[–] yeahiknow3@lemmings.world 1 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (1 children)

Harris had 73 million votes. Biden had 81 million. The population and consequently the number of democratic voters has also increased by several million.

If you do the very basic arithmetic, there are at least 10 million democratic voters who didn’t turn out in 2024. Hope that helps.

[–] Kernal64@sh.itjust.works 1 points 2 hours ago

You know, I wasn't rude to you, so there isn't any reason for your condescending tone.

[–] AmidFuror@fedia.io 4 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

That's possible and what a lot of people are saying.

It's also possible people who voted for Biden voted for Trump instead.

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago

Also voters died. Old age, COVID, random accidents

[–] LifeInMultipleChoice@lemmy.world 14 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago) (1 children)

"Big voter turnout" to me would still be wrong.
155+ million voters in 2020

Population increases by roughly 6 million

Less than 150 million voters in 2024.

If we consider decreasing voter turnout high turnout, sure, it was high. That said, yes some voters likely swayed, but I'd like 80-90% voter turnout to be considered high, but we never get that.

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago

This is literally the third highest turnout since 1900 by VEP, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is hardly a low turnout election. The last 'low turnout' election was 2000, most of the ones since have been average or slightly above.

[–] troglodytis@lemmy.world 3 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

We got 60ish% participation of adults, 64ish% of 'eligible' voters.

We need 100ish

64ish is literally the third highest since 1900, only behind 1960(similar range) and 2020(65ish). It was 54% in 2000. This stuff tends to eb and flow. There was a steady decline from 1960 until 2000 and it's been rising since. 1920-1960 was steady growth, 1870s to 1920s was a decline. Prior to that it was growth more or less since the start

[–] blaue_Fledermaus@mstdn.io 17 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Big? Trump got elected with only 20% of USians voting for him.
Anything less than 90% turnout would already start being dangerous for democracy.
Voting is not a right, it's a duty.

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

This is literally the third highest turnout since 1900 by VEP, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is hardly a low turnout election. The last 'low turnout' election was 2000, most of the ones since have been average or slightly above.

[–] blaue_Fledermaus@mstdn.io 1 points 15 minutes ago

That just means that USian democracy is sick for a long time.
Here in Brazil we have lots of problems and room to improve, but I think we do right by requiring everybody to register to vote on turning 18 and if anyone misses an election without justification they are fined.

[–] jeffw@lemmy.world 12 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Our population increases every year. I hate when people compare numbers instead of percentages (of eligible voters).

Did you ever stop and compare how many votes Biden got to Reagan? So much for Reagan having the biggest landslide! /s

[–] technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago) (1 children)

They never talk about percentages of eligible voters because it would be obvious that nobody wants any of these creeps and this "democracy" is a total sham.

Seriously I've tried to google this information historically. It's not easy. I saw a zine about this a few years ago but I can never find it.

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago

The VEP is the third highest since 1900, only behind 2020 and 1960. This is an extremely high turnout election

[–] themeatbridge@lemmy.world 10 points 10 hours ago (2 children)

Lot of accurate criticisms in this thread, but something we should also keep in mind, progressives are OK with that. If voters vote and it doesn't go our way, we don't look for ways to restrict voting or prevent voters from participating in the process. We don't call in bomb threats or create arbitrary obstacles to voting. We celebrate high voter turnout, even when we lose. Democracy is bigger than one election.

[–] Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world 6 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

Too bad this might be the last one

[–] themeatbridge@lemmy.world 1 points 1 hour ago

I agree with you, but if the time for another revolution has arrived, we need to remember that it wasn't democracy that got us here, it was corruption. When we win, we should not seek retribution or tit-for-tat oppressive policies.

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 4 points 9 hours ago

That's how we felt before 2020 anyway. People actively voting for a party trying to destroy democracy changes the calculus a bit and we can no longer ignore the long-term ramifications of placing these kinds of people in power

[–] Prox@lemmy.world 13 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

Do we have any stats showing what percentage of eligible voters turned out this year? If the US population keeps increasing, we'd expect "record turnout" every election.

[–] ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.world 2 points 2 hours ago

63 and a half percent. Third highest since 1900, only behind 2020(65.8%) and 1960(high 64s to low 65s depending on source). For context, 2008 was 61.6, 2016 was 59.2, and 2000 was 54.3.

[–] Kernal64@sh.itjust.works 4 points 11 hours ago

According to Wikipedia, about 155.5 million people voted in 2020 and so far, there are about 150.2 votes counted this time (98% of votes counted). They say that in 2020 we had a 66.6% turnout, but until all the votes are counted, we don't have a turnout number yet. That said, it seems on track to be a little lower than 2020, although not by a huge margin.

[–] Lasherz12@lemmy.world 7 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

6 million less people voted so far than 2020, which is enough to make up the popular vote difference. I think this article's conclusion is both* dismissive of population growth and also too generous in assuming those missing votes would have been split the same as those who did show up.