this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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The world would have to look so unrecognizable for a Socialist revolution to succeed in the center of global capitalism, saying any bounded period of time is really just pulling numbers out of nowhere.
I personally believe there are at least 3 long term requirements for this event to happen: dedollarization, end of neo-coloniasm, and climate collapse. Capitalism cannot survive these, and they're coming within the next century and a half or so (climate collapse will happen in half that time and inevitably bring about the others). In that time, though, we might literally just be extinct from nuclear Holocaust and mass starvation.
You think climate collapse is a necessary requirement for socialism in the core?
I don't think it's an absolute requirement, but I think capitalism exhausting its own resource and ecological foundations is just as fundamental a contradiction as the exploitation of labor. I think as conditions presently stand, climate collapse will precede other major turning points in the undoing of imperialism.
I personally think environmental collapse would make it more difficult to keep the periphery in line. Possibly resulting in a recession in the abilities and scope of the state.
The countryside surrounds the city. Finance capital can only sustain itself as long as the base of the supply chain keeps producing the food and raw resources that they collect rent on, as well as the vast majority of labor power which sits in the periphery; environmental collapse threatens this process of extraction at its core. Capitalism will not necessarily be eradicated as an immediate consequence of environmental collapse but I think that it will need to go through some transformational change, akin to the grave acceleration of imperialism that happened in the 1970s but in the opposite direction.