The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose

These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.

Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago (4 children)

The US Federal government isn't the entire world. Look at EU member countries like Croatia and Ireland increasingly coming out in favor of Palestine/Gaza. Arabic countries Israel had been normalizing with are withdrawing support. The global south is standing firmly against Israel. And even in the global north, popular sentiment is quickly turning in favor of Palestine.

Maybe I'm insufficiently cynical for Hexbear here.

[–] tocopherol@lemmy.dbzer0.com 36 points 1 year ago

I've seen people compare the media coverage of this to propaganda before around the Iraq war, but I feel like it's already much less one-sided than the calls for invasion were then. I read a Guardian article that made it very clear how horrific Israel's response has been, and how their treatment of Palestine has been horrible for years. For a major source it was about as pro-Palestine as I could imagine them right now. Even on Reddit, I was browsing some comment sections and there was surprisingly humane discussion about the issue.

[–] ChaosMaterialist@hexbear.net 22 points 1 year ago

Even the US Government is having its limits tested.

[–] Catradora_Stalinism@hexbear.net 21 points 1 year ago (1 children)

its also the fact that economic support for israel is almost impossible at this time due to how much was drained by ukraine

[–] ElChapoDeChapo@hexbear.net 6 points 1 year ago

Yeah Hamas really timed this perfectly, the empire is at the weakest it has ever been in my lifetime

[–] ZWQbpkzl@hexbear.net 19 points 1 year ago

Since when was Croatia or Ireland a critical part of Israel support network? The global south has been fairly uniformly against Israel for decades.

And even in the global north, popular sentiment is quickly turning in favor of Palestine.

I have no idea how correct that is or not because the press and halls of power have fully closed rank around Israel. Popular support for Israel might be dropping and once they invade it will almost certainly drop more. But who knows if anything will come of it.