politics

Gaza is not only dense but well-defended. They have networks of tunnels dug under the city and extending out of Gaza. Fighters can disappear an IOF soldier in 10 seconds in their tunnels and you'll never see him again. The last time they tried to enter, in 2014, one IOF soldier came out of it describing the experience like so: It was hell. Everything you touched could explode against you. Everyone you see could pull a weapon and shoot you as soon as you turn your head. And there's lots of people. You move step by step, as if in the dark, and just hope you make it out alive.

Honestly a land invasion of Gaza might be their nail in the coffin. This is where they do not have superiority. They can bomb Gaza all they want, but they can't invade it and succeed. Both times they've tried it was a colossal defeat for them.

Compound that with the fact that the IOF is a serious paper tiger. They can claim they're the most disciplined army in the Middle East or whatever as much as they want, but video footage shows an army in disarray, shooting at their own, not practising the most basic amount of safety. Remember the video from a few years ago of an IOF soldier picking up a flag someone planted on the Gaza border fence and just casually bringing it up to his mates before it exploded in his hands? All they know is to terrorize civilians, once the civilians start shooting back they don't know what to do.

IDF tiktok influencer finding out that hitting the griddy means nothing when you have an entire block opening fire on you and throwing petrol bombs.

Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose

Absolutely, there was a time, I forgot when, that Israel tried occupying the Gaza strip, and they were promptly driven out like the vermin they are. Thats why they rely on long range heavy munitions to genocide Palestine, because they would get obliterated in a "fair fight" with the people whose homeland they are invading.

All true, but I would add one more that's probably the most important factor:

Israel is deeply divided. The Sword of al-Quds in 2021 exposed massive fault lines that only deepen two years later. Plenty of people who aren't Palestinians loathe Netanyahu for various reasons. This division means the risk of mutinies. Once the body bags start coming, many soldiers will either refuse to go in or straight up mutiny. And once the military mutinies, it's game over. Netanyahu understands this very real possibility, which is why they're just bombing Gaza back to the stone age. But the bombs and missiles will eventually run out and they'll have to enter in Gaza one way or another.

I don't know shit but from casually checking the news mega that seems to be the general sentiment. What I don't get is wouldn't this ground invasion be a completely unforced error on Israel's part? Why are they even considering it?

1. The IDF might spread itself too thin but I'm not quite sure that's a concern for them.
2. "Their rapidly crumbling international support" Let me know if Turkey or Egypt is included in that claim.
3. Is the correct reason.

Gaza is one of the densest urban areas in the world and is currently occupied by a demonstrably well organized and committed defenders, who have had decades to prepare. On top of that, IDF infantry was proven to be surprisingly ineffective in 2006. Conventional military wisdom is to level the city to the ground, like Raqqa or Aleppo, instead of doing an infantry invasion. I doubt they have any plans to actually invade until Gaza is leveled.

Rapidly crumbling international support

Could you elaborate on that? I thought the international community was rallying behind them. Won't the US oriented part of the world do whatever the US asks in order to defend their "unsinkable aircraft carrier"?

The land invasion is irrelevant if international pressure to lift the genocidal blockade does not exceed the pressure of a hostile population who knows their oppression will end in genocide; that first pressure will never become the dominant aspect. Instead, Israel can bomb and starve forever and the Israeli population is radicalized enough to accept the losses from having a semi-porous border.

A direct assault would probably end as you described, both on the ground and in terms of propaganda. Which is why they are hemming and hawing. Instead, the threat is armed as a backstop to prevent further intervention by the anti-Israeli Arab forces.

They are gambling that international-political-death by a thousand papercuts is less likely to result in the expansion of conflict than a direct ground invasion.

I think that's reasonable for why they're reluctant but it won't stop them.

This is just going to end up like the Iliad with the stuck there bored as fuck and getting into dick-waving matches for 9 years

There's no way they do a ground invasion soon. They'll shell Gaza for weeks before they do that. They have the ability to basically completely flatten Gaza why would they invade it? Probably that's their goal now. Move civilians around and shell each region and claim that it's okay because they told the civilians to move first.

Entirely correct. Hamas has the superior position going forward: Netanyahu has made a great miscalculation, and many Western governments have walked into a terrible trap. Despite having the best propaganda, and immense power to disseminate (dis)information, the online illusions created by the IDF are just that, and will not hold up: the world does not support Israel.

Israel wouldn't be defeated, but they sure would face a higher loss than they are used to. I imagine he bombing is meant to level the place before they enter to reduce their losses.

But they outnumber and overpower the resistance by far

Internal settler politics dictates that the occupiers have to invade Gaza in order to restore their injured pride. If they don't, the Netanyahu regime is unlikely to survive. On the other hand, if the occupiers tries to liquidate the Gaza ghetto they will meet fierce resistance which will make the occupation much costlier to the settlers. Sniping innocent civilians from a safe distance is all fun and games to the average zionist stormtrooper, getting blown up in urban combat against a well-prepared and disciplined enemy is not. The planned invasion will bring the war a lot closer to the non-active military settlers who was able to live a sheltered life emulating that of civilians in normal countries. The occupiers will also have to commit quite a lot of troops and materiel, leaving them open to attacks from Hezbollah in the north.

Meanwhile, the immense fascist brutality of such an operation is likely to wear down public support for Zionism abroad. Already, the genocidal starving and indiscriminate carpet bombings of civilians in Gaza is making zionist propaganda inefficient and the initial pro-zionist sentiment in the west is transforming into "both sides bad" which is problematic in its own right but far from the unwaivering support for genocide that the zionists were hoping for. In the Muslim world, zionist atrocities is making people fiercely oppose comprador regimes trying to "normalise" relations with the zionist entity.

Hamas has been planning this operation for years and seems to be very well informed. They know their enemy very well and must be anticipating the invasion of Gaza. They want the zionists to bring the fight to their home turf where they can inflict maximum damage on them.

Listen, jack

I think just #2 is reasonable because I'm sure there are talks going on behinds the scenes that probably show a completely different picture, we can look at the Ukraine war and how the media shows the bloodthirsty propaganda of the counter offensive meanwhile all the actual analysts were pointing out the US was not realy willing to commit much beyond what they already gave and they demand results before re-investing again. Meanwhile the media is all about Slava Ukraine with the US just happily supporting it. Reality was not so simple.

In this case I think with regards to #1 and #3 again I point to the Ukraine war and how the NATO axis realy believes their actual superiority shit, they actualy believe they'll just march and the enemy will just run away in fear, that their toys are invincible etc.

Maybe this is a hot take but I actualy really doubt the IDF is as fearful as the narrative pushed here often. If they share the same military doctrine as NATO then why would they not be as corrupt and incompetent?

I think there is more than enough reason to believe the only reason holding them back is political. Militarily speaking I don't think they have any doubts of their capability to achieve "victory" however that is defined.

The thing is, they have to, its the only course of action they have besides using up all of their missiles.

They are doomed

One more to add to the list: Israel is blaming the incursion and casualties on a failure of intelligence. If that is true (and I think it is) I would bet the high command has doubts about the rest of its intelligence moving forward.

EDIT: To strengthen your #2, White House: Israel's call to move Gaza civilians is "a tall order"

I don't think they're too worried about international support, since the "international community" will continue to support them through even a hot genocide if they leave enough wiggle room for media to claim it is actually the fault of Hamas, and western media can as we know make do with very, very little wiggle room there. Internal support is a huge risk though. There doesn't need to be a huge upset or anything. Even pretty minor things not going exactly according to plan will leave them utterly fucked.