The IDF will be spread too thin to maintain the intensity of occupations in the West Bank and growing conflict along international borders
Their rapidly crumbling international support will take a massive hit from the brutality of such an assault and could prompt direct retaliation from Hezbollah
Many, many IDF soldiers will get fucking obliterated entering hyper dense urban combat against a million people with nothing left to lose

These three combine to create the likelihood that Israel would be utterly defeated in such an action. The IDF is a paper tiger when they aren't bombing an imprisoned civilian population.

Thoughts? Am I right or wrong with this take?

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 21 points 1 year ago

Internal settler politics dictates that the occupiers have to invade Gaza in order to restore their injured pride. If they don't, the Netanyahu regime is unlikely to survive. On the other hand, if the occupiers tries to liquidate the Gaza ghetto they will meet fierce resistance which will make the occupation much costlier to the settlers. Sniping innocent civilians from a safe distance is all fun and games to the average zionist stormtrooper, getting blown up in urban combat against a well-prepared and disciplined enemy is not. The planned invasion will bring the war a lot closer to the non-active military settlers who was able to live a sheltered life emulating that of civilians in normal countries. The occupiers will also have to commit quite a lot of troops and materiel, leaving them open to attacks from Hezbollah in the north.

Meanwhile, the immense fascist brutality of such an operation is likely to wear down public support for Zionism abroad. Already, the genocidal starving and indiscriminate carpet bombings of civilians in Gaza is making zionist propaganda inefficient and the initial pro-zionist sentiment in the west is transforming into "both sides bad" which is problematic in its own right but far from the unwaivering support for genocide that the zionists were hoping for. In the Muslim world, zionist atrocities is making people fiercely oppose comprador regimes trying to "normalise" relations with the zionist entity.

Hamas has been planning this operation for years and seems to be very well informed. They know their enemy very well and must be anticipating the invasion of Gaza. They want the zionists to bring the fight to their home turf where they can inflict maximum damage on them.