This might play out how the election would have gone if Covid hadn't been the factor that it was, as well as the George Floyd protests. There's nothing like that from normies to motivate them against Trump. The Palestinian protests aren't the same. Covid isn't in the lockdown phase that people detested so much either.

All the Dems keep pushing is Project 2024 fear propaganda and most people aren't even aware that's a thing outside of lgbt groups. I personally see Trump winning in a close race but it's hard to have a hard prediction for this election.