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This, except reddit popularity droping.
Reddit is mainstream now. The reason they will kill old reddit is because they can. You have to understand that reddit has outgrown its initial audiance. In fact, us leaving is probably saving reddit money because we didnt consume ads. Kids these days use reddit through the main app and are used to consuming tons of ads in all their social apps.
Redsit will "die" in spirit but I'm 100% it won't go away. The way Lemmy keeps predicting.
You don't need popularity dropping at the start, as long as advertisement revenue drops. It could be due to an increase of usage of ad blockers, or lower prices per ad. Or even shareholders "feeling" that they aren't getting enough profits.
That said, I do believe that Reddit will become less popular in the near future (1~2y from now). It'll roughly follow the same path as Twitter, but faster - because unlike Twitter, Reddit doesn't revolve around a few key individuals that anchor the others; it revolves around the content, even for the "lol lmao" phoneposting kids.
But that's the thing. The new users arr mostly kids on their phones. Most users now browser reddit through the official app. So almost no one is blocking ads. It doesnt even matter if the content is trash or reposts or bots. People love that. That sort of content is immensely successful on other sites like instagram. Reddit will just become another content farm with no soul that prints money.
As a content farm Reddit is outcompeted. Reddit's differential used to be the content quality, brought by another demographic than those kids. But once that demographic is gone, so is the differential, thus the other demographic.
(Or: why would I bother with the reddit app if the IG app shows the same thing, but more?)
I guess ghe categorisation of the content is still a unique point.