TL;DW He thinks Kamala will win because of some factors he came up with in the 80s.

He predicts Harris will win citing 8 keys he uses:

 No primary contest and the party is largely behind her

 No sizable third party spoil

 In the short term and long term economies are good

 Biden made large policy changes like Paris accords, chips act, inflation reduction act

 No sustained social unrest

 No meaningful white house scandals

 Challenger charisma is limited to a narrow base

The points against her are:

 Midterm gains by challengers

 Harris isn't the incumbent

With Foreign policy failures and Foreign policy success left unchecked because she passed the majority of the keys.

With those last two he says "The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza. Which is a humanitarian disaster, with no end in sight"