this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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Image is allegedly of the note Trump wrote while editing a speech while on the way back from the G20 summit.


The top Russian-Chinese agent, Donald Trump, has decided that the pace of dedollarization and the decline of American financial hegemony is going too slowly. He has therefore decided to put tariffs on everybody; from America's largest trading partners to uninhabited islands. In the process, he is trying to create an autarkic America. Jokes aside, interpretation and analysis of this has ranged across a wide spectrum. I think we can broadly agree that the most idiotic are the "true believers"; those that actually believe Trump's every word, and that this will somehow bring back American manufacturing and whatever other inane promises he has made.

However, there is a much more interesting debate. The first camp are those who believe Trump is acting as an inadvertent accelerationist due to his lack of understanding about how the world economy and dollar hegemony functions (and that this will subsequently ensure that countries flock to China instead). The second camp are those who believe that Trump does know what he's doing, at least to a certain extent, and that the effective result of this period of madness will be countries kowtowing to the United States; renegotiating trade deals to be even more in favor of the US in order to get tariffs reduced. There's even a yet more cynical camp who believes that in fact, this entire trade war is just theater for further national wealth redistributions from poor to rich; that all these monumental international trade wars are more of a sideshow. To quote the linked article: "[...] out of the mountain of tariffs that threaten to turn into a global trade war will emerge the mouse of further tax cuts."

I'm not embarrassed to admit that I have absolutely no idea which one of these is the closest model to reality. We're in new economic and political ground, and even if the tariffs are quickly renegotiated and/or dropped, the impacts will continue to reverberate around the world for years. I'm sure we'll debate this for months to come here, though!


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] companero@hexbear.net 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (8 children)

Google has blurred the Starykostyantyniv Air Base in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Ukraine. This airfield was attacked by Kalibr cruise missiles in the recent missile attack and has been a prime target for other missile attacks and drones. It is also believed to house F-16s.

https://t.me/AMK_Mapping/9124

"Blurred" makes it sound somewhat innocent, but if you look at it on Google Maps, it's clearly a thorough censorship job with deliberately chosen areas to "blur" (probably cut out, replaced with old imagery, and blurred).

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[–] geikei@hexbear.net 64 points 1 week ago (4 children)

Since as far as i can tell China is still not selling UST and is holding it for the right momment, what if the chinese "plan" if all this continues is to wait as other UST holders keep this yield pressure on the bond market (since this situation continues pressuring asian-euro UST holding hedgefounds and BoJ given their currency and monetary state) then once the Fed is forced to do QE, China dumbs and exits USD. Inflation & rates would explode/ USD would devalue. US may not pay up or impose capital controls, but that means USD will lose GRC status

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[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (6 children)

https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1910344966020210690

I believe this is much more important than bond yields. The final result of foreigners not being willing to hold Dollar denominated assets will be a depreciation of dollar against other currencies. This isn't something either Fed or Treasury can control in the long run unlike bond yields.

The argument that "Trump wants a weak dollar" doesn't work if he is arguing it'll improve trade competitiveness. U.S. manufacturing is limited and its exports are even lower. It'll only add to the price rise from tariff on inputs.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 64 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 29th night in a row, with multiple rounds of airstrikes targeting the Al Bayda', Saada and Hodeidah Governorates. I think this is the first time Al Bayda' has been hit in this campaign, feel free to check me on that as usual, I can and probably will make mistakes, I'm only human and it's been almost a month of continuous airstrikes now, so it's difficult to keep track of it all.

9 airstrikes in Marib Governorate, with 5 targeting Mount Hailan, according to other sources.

Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties during ongoing airstrikes:

Al Masirah TV twitter

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A commentator also mentioned Saudi Arabian shelling of Saada last night, and yeah orher sources collaborated that.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 64 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

New statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces:

Think it's safe to say now that the capability to launch ballistic missiles against Israel is no longer there or no longer being used, with the use of long range drones to target Israel now. It could be that that ballistic missile attacks were considered ineffective, not cost efficient, or the capability to launch these longer range ballistics has been degraded, or Iranian support for these weapons has been withdrawn, or a combination of some or all of the above factors. It's been 8 days since the last ballistic missile launch against Israel, and 11 days since the last Palestine 2 MaRV capable ballistic missile was launched against Israel. It's also been 11 days since the last reported launch of an Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) against US Navy warships, though that has more to do with the ships staying out of range of these missiles, a US Navy supply ship was targeted yesterday with a ballistic missile. Given that the US Navy Carrier Strike Group stays more than 700km away from Yemen, I think ASBM capability is still intact. Cruise missile and drone attacks continue to be launched against the US Navy warships.

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[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 64 points 1 week ago (7 children)

trump threatening sanctions on mexico unless they give up supposedly stolen water

[–] RomCom1989@hexbear.net 60 points 1 week ago

US complaining about not honouring treaties

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[–] EllenKelly@hexbear.net 63 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Anlysis Trump’s Tariffs Aim to Prepare the US for Hot War

Sam King April 12, 2025

Donald Trump’s dramatic, April 2 tariff announcements tanked share markets across the globe and unleashed a wave of mass media commentary claiming the policy is “irrational”, “economically illiterate” and reflective more of Trump’s egotistical ignorance than any clear policy objectives.

first few paragraphs

Trump’s personality obviously has an effect on policy and the way it is implemented, however, there is a growing consensus among the US ruling class about the urgent need to of revive US manufacturing capacity for “national security” reasons.

Trump’s tariff policy is one way of attempting to achieve this outcome. Biden’s massive suite of industrial subsidies and policies was a different method. Before Biden there was the first round of Trump tariffs. Those followed on from the Obama administration’s tax and other incentives for “re-shoring” production to the US. US oil production began rising in 2009 to become the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019.

None of these policies were substantially reversed by changes of government. Biden retained the tariffs from the first Trump administration. Today Trump does not propose canceling Biden’s industrial policies, though they may be modified. Both Republicans and Democrats have steadily increased the range of US products banned from export to China under US technology prohibitions. Both parties also support sanctions on Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela and other countries.

The problem for the US ruling class is not – as Richard Wolf and others argue – that it is unable to compete in “free market” competition with China. If that were the case, it’s declining position would be reflected in declining national wealth and income. In fact, average US income increased in dollar terms by 55 per cent over the ten years to 2023 to almost US$83,000 per person according to World Bank data. While much of that was offset by rising inflation, in 2023 Chinese income was just $US12,614 dollars, over seven times lower.

US capitalism and other imperialist states such as Australia can continue to leverage their technological dominance to make huge super-profits in the globalised economy while outsourcing routine production processes to lower cost economies like Mexico, China or Vietnam. Their ability to keep doing that is why much of the capitalist press sees Trump’s policy as “economically illiterate”.

The problem that Trump, his advisors and US imperialism’s key political strategists seek to fix is not a lack of US profitability relative to its competitors but something else.

The global division of labour that has developed within the framework of US dominance has undermined US manufacturing capacity specifically. While US capital may design, develop, organise, control, market and deliver a product, less actual fabrication is taking place in the US. This weakness in manufacturing specifically makes US imperialism vulnerable to strategic catastrophe in the event of a breakdown of the world trading system, as would likely occur in another major war

.

via https://red-spark.org/2025/04/12/trumps-tariffs-aim-to-prepare-the-us-for-hot-war/

sent to me by a comrade

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[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 63 points 1 week ago (3 children)

JPMorgan Analyst’s ‘Redacted’ Report Spells Out Fear of Trump https://archive.is/kyist

paulie-point

"We heard yr saying bad stuff about the economy"

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[–] ziggurter@hexbear.net 63 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (4 children)

Not primary source, but (BadEmbanada) video which summarizes and cites them.

Jews Have Religious Right to Genocide, Says Israeli Supreme Court ["Israel is Jewish ISIS"]

Israeli Supreme Court cites the Bible to justify starving Palestinians, ethnic cleansing, explicitly refusing to follow international humanitarian law and distinguish between civilians and military targets, etc.

Quite a fucking confession.

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 63 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

Breakdown of relations between Algeria and the AES:

https://africanstream.media/alliance-of-sahel-states-withdraw-ambassadors-from-algeria/
https://africanstream.media/algeria-bans-mali-flights/

Timeline:

  1. Algeria shoots down a Malian drone.

  2. Algeria and Mali dispute over whether the drone was in Algerian or Malian airspace before it got shot down.

  3. Mali accuses Algeria of supporting separatists in northern Mali.

  4. The AES withdraws their ambassadors from Algeria.

  5. Algeria bans flights from Mali.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 63 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Overall tariff impact is about the same now as it was before Trump removed some of the tariffs on non-China countries. Mostly because the increase in China tariffs offsets most of those other countries and the "base 10% tariff" still applies on other countries.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 62 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

US airstrikes on Yemen continue for the 26th night in a row, with multiple airstrikes reported on the capital city, Sana'a. Also reports of Saudi Arabia shelling the border after another alleged failed ballistic missile launch from Yemen.

More airstrikes in Sana'a Governorate.

More airstrikes in the capital city, Sana'a.

More airstrikes on Kamaran Island.

Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties being shown during ongoing airstrikes.

Al Masirah TV twitter

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[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 62 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

BREAKING: This is now the worst three-day performance for the S&P 500 since October 1987.

elmofire

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[–] Sulv@hexbear.net 62 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I did not have ‘China taking the mantle as the leader of the rules based international order’ on my 2025 bingo card. Incredible things are happening.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 62 points 2 weeks ago (10 children)

poor se-asia/africa/latam, trusting seppos. Although i feel the poster under-weighs the textile problem, this still might fuck them faster than nike of the world

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[–] whatdoiputhere12@hexbear.net 62 points 2 weeks ago (7 children)
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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 62 points 2 weeks ago (8 children)

The "CEO" of Praxis, the tech-ghoul backed venture that intends to build a libertarian paradise, has begun a tour of the world to determine where this techno utopia will be built with announced stops in Nuuk (Greenland), Buenos Aires, Rome, Athens, Auckland, Marrakesh, Tokyo, Kyiv, and Santo Domingo. He is backed by the likes of Peter Theil and Sam Altman, and some people are speculating that this is among the reasons why Trump wants to buy Greenland.

Choice quote from the article:

Brown said that many of Praxis’s prospective dwellers are technology founders and workers from Silicon Valley, seeking to pursue innovation in a less regulated environment. In Brown’s view, the creation of these high-tech hubs and the potential positive spillovers in terms of technological advances and new jobs would incentivize governments to welcome Praxis.

I'm honestly fine giving these people a couple billion dollars to actually build Rapture as long as I never have to hear from them again (inshallah-script )

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 62 points 1 week ago (9 children)

The Israeli military think tank 'Alma' has released an infographic, claiming that Iran has successfully established new supply lines to Hezbollah. According to the think tank, which is funded by the Israeli military, Iran has found alternative routes to supply Hezbollah, including through indirect flights via Turkey, smuggling via sea, and smuggling via land.

The think tank asserts that Iran ships weapons to Sudan, smuggling them through the country and then into Libya, and from there into the Mediterranean Sea – where Hezbollah picks up the weapons caches that are 'dropped at sea'. Alma also alleges that Iran still directly supplies Hezbollah with weapons using cargo flights via Turkey and Iraq, transporting individual parts that can be used to produce the weapons, rather than delivering entire weapons, as this would not pass Lebanese inspection.

  • Telegram
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[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 62 points 1 week ago (8 children)
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[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 60 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)
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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 60 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (11 children)

Just a thought: could the timing of the whole tarrifs and trade war (the timing, not the actions themselves) be a gigantic ruse to keep the US military buildup in the Middle East on the backburner in the media? I know it sounds unlikely, but hear me out. We have seen the largest US military buildup in the region since the Iraq war almost two decades ago, over 120 transport/cargo and mid air refueling aircraft now, and the airlift is still ongoing. C-5M Super Galaxy aircraft (the largest aircraft in the US fleet) landing in Israel and Diego Garcia. Another US aircraft carrier is being sent to the region. A US Navy destroyer has been sent to reinforce air defence at Diego Garcia. There is no way this is just for Yemen. Iran is being pressured here, and the assets that would be used in a hypothetical attack against attack Iran are being moved to the ME region. Trump is meeting Netanyahu today, but it seems that no media outlets are talking about it? Reuters is reporting that some of the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq are considering pursuing disarmament to avoid conflict with the United States. That would be the first side to cave in to the maximum pressure strategy, if true of course.

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[–] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 60 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Bro timing his policies like hoi4 national focuses

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[–] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 60 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-cancels-inventory-orders-china-142849013.html

Amazon canceling orders with no warning, unknown how widespread this is.

edit: replaced link, previous one didn't work on desktop

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[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 60 points 1 week ago

do-something amerikkka Balkanize already.

[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 60 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I wonder if the tariffs on china will cause the Cuban economy to boom. If Chinese ships have no incentive to dock in US ports for 6 months after trading with Cuba, the blockade is completely bypassed

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[–] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago (4 children)

Lunch time in New York and the S&P 500 has already lost about half its gains from yesterday.

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[–] boiledfrog@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago (14 children)

Do you think this shitshow will force the CCP to take aore overtly ideological stance as to push more for a is vs them narrative?

[–] xiaohongshu2@hexbear.net 62 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

China has most likely calculated a variety of possible outcomes maybe even years before Trump was elected as president, unlike neoliberal countries who's future is mostly obscured by maintaining capital, there is no “hundred year plan” for the west, much like the stock market, their moves are unpredictable, highly volatile, and dictated by the market.

China can only do the thing it has been doing and that is deepening relations with other countries and offering alternative solutions to the US. The US is doing all the “heavy lifting” by ostracizing themselves on a global level to the point where even the EU is more vocal about their distrust in the US hegemony. No doubt Nordsrresm and the Ukraine war has only made relations worse such as when Trump scolded Zelensky on display, Trump made it clear that Europe’s aid paled in comparison. And sure, Trump says whatever he says but this always comes at a cost for the rest of the country, Trump is the naked face of the American empire for what it truly is, so other nations do not shy away from this fact and act without having to put on the mask because diplomacy is a facade.

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[–] john_brown@hexbear.net 59 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)
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[–] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

Wisconsin teen killed parents as part of Trump assassination plot - apnews link as well.

A newly unsealed search warrant also alleges that the suspect's phone contained material relating to a neo-Nazi group called the Order of Nine Angles and praise for Adolf Hitler.

The alleged double murder "appeared to be an effort to obtain the financial means and autonomy necessary to carrying out his plan", investigators wrote.

The trump would-be-assassins are getting crazier every time

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago (7 children)
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[–] riseuppikmin@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

If this isn't top level post apologies, but what is the chance that the entire purpose of this stunt was to do a massive wealth transfer of non-Trump aligned capital without insider knowledge to directly Trump-aligned capital with insider knowledge of tariff implementation and pause timing?

It's impossible for me to figure out the balance between the stupidity and corruption of this US administration.

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago (35 children)

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-planes-flew-entire-patriot-battalion-pacific-middle-east-2025-4

The US transferred an entire Patriot SAM battalion (24-36 launchers) from INDOPACOM (near China) to CENTCOM (Middle East).

I know this is to protect against retaliation if they strike Iran, but coupled with other events it kinda feels like they are also encouraging China to move on Taiwan.

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (8 children)

Dumb article written by some 84 year old USian immigrant in Canada about how conscription should be brought back to Canada:
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2025/04/11/My-Case-Conscription-Canada/

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[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 59 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Pavel Palisa a top ukrainian official wants women conscripted into army. "No matter how wild it sounds now, maybe we need to learn the experience of Israel in this" https://zamin.uz/en/world/147845-ukraine-may-introduce-mandatory-military-service-for-women.html

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[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 58 points 1 week ago (1 children)

There's bull market, bear market, and kangaroo market.

This bullshit is earthquake market lmao.

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[–] Cowbee@hexbear.net 58 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Let the markets burn, and the US Empire squirm as it dies.

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