this post was submitted on 10 Mar 2025
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Image is from Wikipedia's article on the war..


I've wanted to cover Myanmar for a while now but haven't had the needed knowledge to write much more than "This situation really sucks." After doing a little reading on the situation, I feel even more confused. A decent analogy is the Syrian Civil War, at least while Assad was in power (though it's still pretty true today) - many different opposition groups, some co-operating with the United States, others not. The main government supported partially by an anti-American superpower, but who could live with that government collapsing if there are deals to be made with the group coming into power. A conflict kept going and exploited at least partially by the United States and other imperial core powers, though with plenty of genuine domestic animosity and desires for political independence.

Recently, the Myanmar government - the mainstream media uses "junta", which is probably accurate despite the connotations - has promised elections at the end of 2025. This doesn't seem likely to happen, and even if it did, how this would work in a country as war-torn as Myanmar is unclear. The government is losing territory and soldiers at a quick pace; they now hold only 21% of the country, though that 21% does at least comprise many of the cities. It's difficult to get a handle on the number of people affected because civil wars and insurgencies have been ongoing in some shape or form for decades, but we're talking at least millions displaced and thousands of civilians killed.

Here's a comment by @TheGenderWitch@hexbear.net from fairly recently that covers the situation in Myanmar:

comment

The military government of Myanmar is losing to the Rebel Groups, and badly. https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-rebels-closing-in-around-junta-into-fifth-year-of-civil-war-/7958145.html

somethings really afoot though, news about myanmar from western outlets and channels have suddenly all remembered myanmar exists and written quite a lot about them in the last few days. Its suspicious, it could be capitalists trying to signal their want for US involvement in the civil war. It could also be a targeted propaganda campaign already pre planned in order to make sure people are clued into the conflict.

I think this seems to be another Assad situation. The Military government is pretty unpopular domestically and is losing quite a bit of ground. I would be surprised if they lasted to 2027. Supplied by both Russia and China, theyve been able to keep some flow of weapons, but are suffering a lot from manpower issues. Conscription has been enacted, but conscripts are a poor replacement for trained soldiers. According to reports, they only hold about 21% of the land and are losing lots of territory. They also have extended their emergency rule for another 6 months, throwing doubt on the ability to follow through with their 2025 election. They've lost large amounts of territory, thousands of soldiers, and 2 regional commands. They're not dead yet though, as they have some ability to retake some territory and win some battles, but again 21%. Rebels currently are making steady progress towards the second largest city in the country.

while I don't like the rebels, they are western aligned, they have popular support and are allied to many of Myanmar's ethnic minority defence groups. Im wondering who really has the power in this situation though, since many of the gains seem to be made by the Ethnic armies, not the NUG. This revolutionary energy could be fueled to establish a socialist federation, but won't, and the popular revolutionary energy is fueled toward the NUG. It'll probably be another pro-west bourgeoisie democracy. It will probably then turn against the ethnic rebels and we'll end up basically where myanmar was pre coup. Probably will have a strong military influence on politics as well, since the rebel forces seem to be made up of officers and very little political groups. By then, people will be extremely tired of war and more likely to accept any conflict resolution than another civil war. In the midst of "It Happened" stands a stronger, unmovable "nothing ever happens". Would be neat if the Communist Party of Burma could somehow come out on top, but they have only around 1000 soldiers and don't control a large amount of territory.

China's interests in the region are still secure, but siding with the Junta is a bad idea, one I understand though. China doesn't want a western aligned power to take over a china aligned state, and is trying to make sure their economic investments in the area are protected and their mineral income is continued. They have deep ties with many Ethnic Minority states, especially on their border, and the NUG forces, mostly again to protect infrastructure investments and keep the minerals flowing. They might flip back to the NUG as the Junta starts collapsing over the next year or so, especially since the new US administration seems to be really cutting back on foreign aid. The General in charge of the rebel government forces complained quite a bit about how much aid ukraine got and how much he wanted that aid. He was basically begging for anti aircraft systems "like in ukraine" lol. China could definitely swoop in and back the rebels, which while hurting their reputation, is probably the best move long term. China's only interest is to keep Myanmar from being pro-west, keep control of Myanmar's mineral flow, and protect other investments in the area.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
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English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Jolani hugs and daps up former director of Turkish intelligence and current foreign minister Hasan Fidan

[–] smokeppb@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Trump on Settler Colonialism:

trump-enlightened

"Denmark is really far away and really has nothing to do. What happened is a boat landed there 200 years ago or something and they say they have rights to it. I don't know if that's true. I don't think it is...."

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Trump just wants to do good ol extraction colonialism.

[–] BigBoyKarlLiebknecht@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

And, you know, there’s a book, Settlers - very tough book, folks, very powerful - talks about who really owns the land. And if you look at Greenland, Denmark didn’t build it, okay? I don’t see a lot of Danes there. I see ice, I see minerals - very important, very valuable. But maybe, folks, maybe it’s not about who takes it, maybe it’s about who it already belongs to. Very interesting. We should think about that.

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[–] Aradino@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Australia warns the US it has other buyers for critical minerals.

"There's got to be a whole lot less America and more Asia… and a whole lot more international engagement."

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/qa-craig-baird-us-mckinley-1.7477340 Q&A: Historian says U.S. tried to annex Canada with tough tariffs before — and it didn't work

[–] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/us-citizen-child-recovering-brain-cancer-deported-mexico-undocumented-rcna196049

A family that was deported to Mexico hopes they can find a way to return to the U.S. and ensure their 10-year-old daughter, who is a U.S. citizen, can continue her brain cancer treatment.

[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (4 children)

Schumer announces he will vote to keep Hitlerism open

[–] Hexboare@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Funding gaps began to lead to shutdowns in 1980, when Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti issued a legal opinion requiring it.

This opinion was not consistently adhered to through the 1980s, but since 1990 all funding gaps lasting longer than a few hours have led to a shutdown.

Stupid country

The most amusing outcome would be Trump vetoing the bill at the 11th hour

[–] ziggurter@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

It's so that, y'know, they can have just a bit of extra austerity now and then, as a treat.

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

he folded like an origami i-cant

[–] newmou@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

We MUST keep these departments running for Trump to cut at all costs

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Where are our greatest posters when we need them most?

Coulda had a bad binch

[–] newmou@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago
[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (5 children)

China has trapped the Taklimakan in the green cauldron. now it will advance along benefitial Axies to cut it into ever smaller Isolated Pockets until its Insolance is Punished.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

China has complete ~~fire~~ planting control over the desert encirclement. The sand has two choices: surrender to the trees or ~~die~~ be blown away.

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[–] SteamedHamberder@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (5 children)

I think Noah Kulwin just got arrested occupying Trump Tower

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

He was just released after getting arrested.

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[–] vovchik_ilich@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

@xiaohongshu@hexbear.net I have a question for you, my dear comrade.

China, as we know, undervalues its currency in order to be more appealing to exports and to secure a better position in the international market. On the other hand, China recently confirmed that the public deficit will grow to be of 4% for the year 2025. Seeing as China is systematically devaluing its currency in the international market, is there any reason why it doesn't just ramp up expenditure a lot further? Social services could certainly be improved and there is a growing concern for unemployment. Is there anything other than neoliberal brainworms preventing the government from doing this?

Thank you in advance

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Good question. I was thinking whether I should explain it in MMT terms but from your other replies, you seem to already have some familiarity with it so it’ll be quite easy for you to understand.

You are absolutely right in that from an MMT perspective, the Chinese government can simply create the money it wants to fund social spending etc.

However, such mechanism does not exist when it comes to RMB issuance within China’s central bank (PBOC). Since the 1994 “exchange rate reform” that unified the dual exchange rate regimes and the depreciation of the yuan from 5.8 / USD to 8.7 / USD, and especially since joining the WTO in 2001, the expansion of the yuan monetary base has come primarily from accumulation of foreign reserves (at one point, it reached 90% of all new currency issued). After 2014, as the US ended its quantitative easing, export revenues dropped sharply and China has since maintained ~$3.2T USD of foreign reserves to this day. The proportion of foreign currencies in monetary base has since dropped from 90% down to 40-50%, and the rest is replaced by the central bank issuing various forms of financial instruments that collateralize assets e.g. repo, SLF/MLF, etc. to finance the creation of new monetary base.

From 2003-2013, the yuan monetary base increased by ~21 trillion yuan (8.5x expansion), and nearly all of which came from foreign reserves. In other words, Chinese exporters earned dollars/foreign currencies, sold them to the PBOC, the latter then bought US treasuries or other form of securities and kept them as “foreign reserves”, and in turn issue an equivalent amount of yuan into the economy (e.g. depositing into the bank accounts of the exporters).

Of the 21 trillion newly issued yuan from 2003-2013, ~13 trillion (62%) went into real estate and other speculative domains. The other 8 trillion entered the real economy but because the RMB issuance mechanism was so heavily reliant on earning foreign currencies, a large part of those 8 trillion went into export-oriented sector as opposed to the domestic-oriented sector.

As such, financing of domestic-oriented economy became deprioritized. This drove local governments to borrow from commercial banks and private investors to build infrastructures and high speed rail (instead of directly financed by the central government). At the same time, because the high proportion of foreign reserves drove down the bank reserve interest rate (lower than deposit rate), this forced commercial banks to raise their lending rate and this ultimately led to a proliferation of shadow banks. Prior to 2014, local governments were not allowed to issue their own debt/bonds, and as such borrowed through these shadow banks with high interest rates, and this formed the mountain of “hidden debt” that has continued to strain the local government finances to this day.

As you can see, these are all very regressive methods of financing a government project from an MMT perspective.

Let’s say you are a local government and want to build a hospital or a high speed rail station, you have to borrow from the banks or issue bonds to attract funding from private investors. First, exporters earn foreign currencies and sell them to PBOC, which are then kept as foreign reserves (the PBOC then issues new RMB currencies into the banking reserve to increase the monetary base). Because commercial banks are required to keep a minimum reserve requirement ratio (RRR), the more reserves there are in the banking system, the more the banks can lend.

Second, because economic growth is reliant on export, the funds from bond holders would also likely come from earning foreign currencies first (or through secondary effects of export revenues being used to fund domestic development).

In either case, the financing has to first come from a foreign country willing to spend their money on Chinese goods (i.e. the US running a huge and persistent trade deficit).

On the other hand, let’s see how the RMB issuance mechanism would work under an MMT framework (China having full monetary sovereignty): PBOC directly creates new issuance of yuan into the reserve system of the commercial banks, and commercial banks then deposits bank accounts of the companies contracted to build hospitals/high speed rail stations. The excess reserve was then soaked up by the Chinese government issuing government bonds, purchased by the PBOC.

Note the very important difference here: the MMT financing mechanism involves the government directly buying from the local economy (new money injected directly into the economy), whereas the current financing mechanism that China employs often relies on selling stuff to foreigners first AND borrowing from commercial banks which increases the systemic risk of a banking crisis e.g. commercial lending creates assets for the borrowers (deposits in the local government account to build infrastructure) but also liability for the creditor (local government has to repay that debt in the future) - no new money is directly injected into the economy. If export revenue does not increase, then the broad money supply (e.g. M2 per IMF definition) expands but the monetary base stays the same.

With regards to the new Chinese government budget of increasing deficit to 4% - this is a good thing and will certainly increase spending on welfare etc. However, whether an increase from 3 -> 4% is enough to offset the slowing consumption, only time will tell. More importantly, this increase in deficit is may or may not be permanent (many countries increase their deficits during recessions and then pull back when the economy stabilizes). This is opposed to the MMT framework of calling for permanent deficit spending. In other words, the local governments would not have been mired in such a huge amount of debt (no need to borrow in the first place) had the financing mechanism was conducted this way. China would not have a problem with funding social welfare and other public services at all.

Finally, I will go through one more set of figures with you, as an example: following the 2009 GFC, the Chinese government immediately a 4 trillion yuan stimulus to keep the economy from going into recession.

Of the 4 trillion yuan, 1.18 trillion came from the central government, which was financed by issuing government bonds. The other 3.82 trillion came from local government and private sector financing. The local governments soon followed with their own initiatives that added another 18 trillion yuan into the stimulus, which was financed by borrowing from the banks or private investors.

All of the information above came from Jia Genliang’s 2018 book《国内大循环:经济发展新战略与政策选择》(The Great Domestic Circulation: New Strategy and Policy Choices for Economic Development), who is the foremost MMT/Marxist professor at the People’s University today.

As you can see, whenever the Chinese government increases its deficit spending, it has to be funded from somewhere else. This is a “hard currency” approach as opposed to the “soft currency” financing that MMT is advocating.

Hope this makes it clear. Let me know if you have any other questions.

[–] vovchik_ilich@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Wow, what a great and detailed response, thank you very much.

I wasn't aware at all that the PBOC doesn't use the creation of RMB as a tool, and that most of the currency being created over the past years comes from exports and from foreign investment, really interesting.

All of this begs the question: why impose itself such policy limitations? Why not just ramp up expenditure, especially in the context of a private sector consumption slump? Why not remove this artificial barrier from just issuing more currency? Do you think it's because of neoliberal brainworms?

Also, I'll have to check Jia Genliang, reading the works of a good Chinese economist on the economy of China should bring a better understanding of the policy to me.

Thank you so much as always for your insight, you're really appreciated around here

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[–] micnd90@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago
[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

A lot of libs are mad at the Dems and Schumer right now, even absolute ghouls like Neera and Stencil. In a few days they will calm down and realize they have nowhere else to go - the only alternative to the establishment Dems is the left and the libs would rather destroy the party than give in to the left. So we will be back to business as usual.

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (3 children)
[–] Eldungeon2@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Looks like Schumer is no longer Palestinian

[–] john_brown@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Anyway, send more money to the dnc so they can hashtag resist!

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

This is an outgoing government and the parliament is going to be dissolved soon. The defense minister is a freak from a party that for decades used to be the furthest party in parliament (despite being called Democratic Social Center), until the far-right arrived, it's also unlikely to elect more than 1 or 2 MPs unless it runs in coalition with the center-right so this is the guy just trying to get some shots in to make himself a big "Pro-european" during campaign season.

That or they just needed a reason to cancel the orders of shitty air fighters that don't work and settles on "trump bad", I still don't believe in the possibility of any "european rearmament" that isn't mainly driven by US arms purchases

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[–] GoodGuyWithACat@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

https://xcancel.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1900390072870199599

Trump casually threatening the territorial integrity of two NATO states (Denmarkkk and Kkklanada) while the Sec Gen of NATO sits there and jokes with him.

I couldn't get the xcancel link to work but I'll change the link if someone can get it.

[–] Lemmygradwontallowme@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)
[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

The institute estimates that aligning Britain’s productivity with the US could boost UK workers’ earnings by over £4,000 today.

Bull fucking shit. The wages would stay the same and they'd take that fucking money for themselves.

[–] kittin@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The UK is a colony of London now just get used to it

[–] ComradeSpahija@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Bit idea: Maoist Third Worldism but only for English counties and the other UK constituent states.

[–] tripartitegraph@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

JDPOC(ounties)

[–] jack@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

South Buckingframptonhampshire on Blant Liberation Front

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