this post was submitted on 30 Sep 2024
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Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.


We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.

The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.

Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 63 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

https://x.com/BZKanging/status/1750544237295284583

As we approcha the Anniversery , here is Israeli TV debunking their own Lies , might be usefull for the Libs in your life

[–] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago

I can't help but feel so guilty this week seeing the horrors that are about to start in Lebanon. Solidarity forever to everyone in the region, may we see a free Palestine and a free Arab people in our lifetimes.

[–] grandepequeno@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Weeks there are and decades happen there happen weeks decades where where

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[–] Zorothamya@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (7 children)

I'm dreading the kind of stuff the zionists are going to be saying in 1 hour and 40 minutes (midnight between the 6.th of october and 7.th of october in israel) in regards to the one year anniversary of the "greatest massacre of jews since the holocaust". (not that they have ever stopped, I just feel like we will be hearing a lot more of it that day)

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago (1 children)
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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (12 children)

seems like Israel will strike tonight . or at least has Psy Op iran to expect the strike tonight .. Khark island has evacuated all the tankers and the Marine has left their harbours.

Edit: also ,big big speculation --> Nuke test?

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[–] rainn@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago (6 children)

IDF says the attack is over, and Israel 'reserves the right to respond at a time and place of its choosing'

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[–] viva_la_juche@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago

There are weeks when general mega and days when news mega

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago

Arab channels are now saying "No confirmed entry of IDF forces into Lebanon."

Fog of war is starting. Everything is going to be completely impossible to confirm without evidence.

[–] fever@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Iran's National TV brought a brainless genius cleric. He said: "Hitler's diagnosis was correct and said kill the Zionist; their next devilry will be in the US."

Our national TV is worse than our enemies.

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[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 62 points 2 months ago

CIA assessment on various militant groups and the feasibility of assassinating their leaders as COIN:
https://xcancel.com/richimedhurst/status/1840419193860088238

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Kann news agency posted this video of their troop movements titled "Trucks with soldiers on the way to the northern border" then deleted it.

https://xcancel.com/aryjeay/status/1840863885382816153

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[–] miz@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (5 children)
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[–] LargePenis@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Iran to finally stop their edging streak 🙏

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (3 children)

So is this the "October surprise"? Or do you think there will there be something else (aside from potential regional war in the Middle East)?

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[–] Torenico@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

number 1: death to "israel"

number 2: death to amerikkka

number 3: stalin shouldn't have stopped at berlin, the g*rman nation shouldn't have survived ww2 the way it did.

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (6 children)

I have breaking news:

Just woke my mother up from sleep due to spicy ramen making a comeback and farting loudly in a hotel room for a half hour queer before shitting in the hotel bathroom which despite itxs niceties has no fan and echoes like a pete-eat wine cave and the door squeaked loudly like some rusty swing.

I tried to hold in my powers, but it was too much to contain. I will now hear about this in family gatherings for years. agony-shrooms

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[–] Aru@lemmygrad.ml 61 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Another incident now on occupation forces south of Lebanon, different than the one from the morning

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (2 children)

MSNBC is casually talking about the possibility of Israel creating regime change in Iran.

It's all a game of Risk to the motherfuckers.

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[–] notceps@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (8 children)

Don't mind me just passing through with some vote information.

Both Kamala and Trump are dead even as far as the betting market is concerned

And pollsters are doing their song and dance

It would be somewhat funny if Trump again wins the EC but loses the popular vote.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 61 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Pls hit airfields while their army is stranded in lebanon, pls (and generation) pray-against

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[–] miz@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (5 children)
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[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Basado missile launch

🎥|🇮🇷 WATCH: Spectacular launch scenes of the Iranian Ghadr ballistic missile with maneuverable RV, launched during operation ‘True Promise-2’ tonight.

https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8607

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Check out this NYT update.

Israel’s military told U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon on Monday “of their intention to undertake limited ground incursions into Lebanon,” the peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL, said on social media. It said that “any crossing into Lebanon is in violation of Lebanese sovereignty,” and called for civilian life and property, as well as international law, to be respected.

link

I'll finish the UN joke by adding a punchline

Israel said "Yeah - you know us. We always respect civilian life, property, and most of all international law."

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[–] Noven@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago

It has begun

[–] geikei@hexbear.net 60 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Since Russia's new icbm tests seem to be a bit hit and miss lately and with China's test recently its important to note that while the general public in the west seem to be under the impression that Russia’s ICBMs are the faulty and unreliable ones, it is the US that actualy fields almost exclusively positively ancient barely working missiles .

The Minuteman III is by far the world's oldest ICBM still in active use as part of a nation's nuclear triad. It was originally deployed in 1970 and only had a planned service life of 10 years. It's only still operational over 50 years later because of life extension programmes but at some point, a thing is so old that there's no life left to extend. The electronic components of that era basically don't exist anymore. So you'd not just be re-engineering the missile's design, you'd be re-enginering and remaking components from the very birth of the chip industry. It's an impossible task. Which basically means as these things break down there's no fixing them.

The former STRATCOM Chief had this to say about the situation:

“Let me be very clear: You cannot life-extend the Minuteman III [any longer],” he said of the 400 ICBMs that sit in underground silos across five states in the upper Midwest. “We can’t do it at all. ... That thing is so old that, in some cases, the drawings don’t exist anymore [to guide upgrades],” Richard said in a Zoom conference sponsored by the Defense Writers Group. Where the drawings do exist, “they’re like six generations behind the industry standard,” he said, adding that there are also no technicians who fully understand them. “They’re not alive anymore.”

People joke about questionable operational readiness of Russian ICBMs but in reality, Russia has significantly more modern ICBMs in service than the US and im not even gonna mention China's buildup in quantity and quality. It's the US that should be worried about the operational readiness of its ICBMs. This is especially prominent after the highly publicising failure of 2 of the US' Minuteman III tests last November. Sure, two missile tests worked in June (one barely) but given the recency of the previous failure, another failure would have spelled absolute disaster for the US' nuclear credibility so I'm sure extra care and attention to detail was taken in ensuring that failure was not even a possibility. Problem is its douptfull that the US even has the domestic capability to replace the land portion of its nuclear triad completely without it costing like 2 trillion dollars and taking 20 years. Sure the subs will always be there and they work quite well but its interesting to see what the US will done with its land based nukes. I highly doubt either the Democrats nor the Republicans will want to be seen as the party that says "our nukes dont work and we need 1 quintillion dollars to replace them " or just completely drop one leg of the US' nuclear triad, however unnecessary that leg may be.

One thing’s for certain and its quite funny, and that is if the US does not find significantly more money for its military, it will have to cut back on many aspects of its military it has up until this point taken for granted. Already, we are seeing budget constraints affecting every branch of the military in very significant ways. With the USAF being forced to rethink what it wants with quite literally one of its most important next-generation projects due to budget constraints. The state of the USAF tanker fleet is also less than optimal with them significantly cutting back on the number of tankers they planned on ordering this decade by half. Instead, the USAF wants to pursue a gold-plated stealth tanker solution called NGAS to enter service in the 2030s at the same time as all of their other commitments. God knows where they’re going to get the money for this.

The USN is also being forced to cut back on its own next-generation projects that are not limited to just F/A-XX as DDG(X) has also been running into issues. This is all in addition to F-35C procurement that is far less expedited than it should be. There is no money to expand shipyards and increase production in any significant way and submarine production is progressing at a glacial pace, with the US being unable to produce SSNs and SSBNs at the rate it needs to let alone produce surplus SSNs for Australia.

The US Army has also been forced to consistently delay replacements for aging platforms like the Bradley, Abrams, Apache, Chinook and so on. But, given that I highly doubt the US is going to be seeing any large land war with a major power any time in the near future, the US Army can get away with it much more than the other branches can.

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