Trump has been acting like a loser lately. They need to find a better drug mix or he's Toever

I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee even now. It does look like a low-point for Trump with a large portion of the country genuinely hating him. The same was true of Biden but Kamala is such a blank slate that people can just assume what they want about her.

Unlike Mondale, Gore, Lieberman, and Biden. Harris has no history of being a boisterous “moderate.” This helps a lot with her perceived image. Still think she’s a charismatic sinkhole and that Dems have an uncanny ability to fuck things up.

It's a race between "weird" locking up the election vs. Israel starting a regional war and/or Ukraine collapsing

If events force foreign policy back into the national media spotlight, then Harris is cooked

Predicting election results this far out is pointless in a country where the political lines are as blurred as they are in the US.

Something like half of the people polled after the Minneapolis police station got torched thought it was a good thing (or at least that it was justified); I severely doubt those same people feel that way now. The country's electorate is incredibly fickle and biased towards the aesthetic of the moment, as reactionaries are wont to be, to say nothing of their memory.

3 months is a lot of time for things to happen.

VP pick does matter in at least one instance: Josh Shapiro could tank her chances in Michigan, and most of her pathways to victory run through Michigan. Other than that, I'd agree that her VP matters very little

Trump looks more and more weak, however he just needs to win the two swing states he is already polling his highest in, Georgia and Pennsylvania, and he wins.

The "weird" comment was more effective than any campaigning Biden did

If they can keep her in front of a teleprompter until the election without fail, maybe. The "they're so weird, right!" thing will only work for as long as they can obfuscate that she is also alarmingly weird.

it really is amazing how much trump and the republicans bungled the assassination attempt, like when I heard the news and saw that picture I thought it was over for sure, but they really didn't capitalize on it at all

Generally agree with the title. Biden was dragging the DNC's chances down to hell with him, but polling shows Kamala is closing the gap in swing states.

American empire will continue to expand, nothing will fundamentally change. Blue MAGA is the new order.

Unfortunately true, while US Hegemony crumbles. Better than GOP rule, but won't make much, if any, positive material change. I do believe we are seeing the dying throes of a rescinding empire, however.

the celebrations after she wins are going to be the most insufferable shit imaginable, worse than when Biden won. I think I'm just gonna try to go to sleep for the entirety of November through March

Probably

Harris as candidate improves their chances in that it removes the sundowning old white man problem. But Harris still has charisma and organizational issues, economy still sucks for most people, still signing off on a genocide. I’m not saying Trump has it for sure, but the honeymoon is going to end soon and I’m sure the Republicans will be able to come up with something better that old cat lady.

Assuming everything continues as it is now, I agree. If the economy collapses or bird flu goes human-to-human or something, though, voter participation might drop off a cliff leaving only the die-hards to vote. In that case, Trump wins the popular vote, but the electoral vote is still a toss up because of how distorted voter participation will become.

Kamala Harris represents the same type of cultural and social malaise that Trump does but in a different form. It's all about how cruel you can be to get ahead. People like Kamala wrap themselves in a blanket of false kindness, of "nice vibes" but in reality they are just as evil, just the same as more blatant and obvious narcissists like Trump.

You can keep people imprisoned beyond their sentencing, using them as self-admitted slave labor because it's simply too profitable to release them, and you can be president one day. It's all about how much debasement we will accept from our society.