askchapo

On the one hand, everything I've read about how Cuba is organized internally makes me incredibly optimistic about the resiliency of their socialist politics. I think it's possible that Cuba might see some kind of sweeping reform movement at some point, but it will be more in the realm of China or Vietnam's reforms where the communists yield to some social democratic policies in order to try and curry favor with the US but retain political power rather than a full on color revolution.

(edit: in fact a certain number of reforms like that have already happened throughout Cuba's modern history)

On the other, people in 1988 thought that the USSR would last a hundred more years.

Sad part is things will be much worse if it does

Doubtful. They survived the special period in the 90s, they'll survive this.

Unless Russia/China decides to completely turn their backs on Cuba, probably not.

Anything could happen but I think despite pressure things have generally been improving. There's a much larger bloc they can work with. No color revolution has succeeded so far.

I also don't exclude the possibly of a US president in at some point, maybe a decade or so deciding to do something insane like an outright invasion in the mold of the Iraq War.

But that would be an absurdly bad idea for the USA. They'd win early on, but then have a metastasizing insurgency right on their doorstop. US troops dying in occupying Cuba, but also coordinated violence and "terrorist" attacks spilling to Haita, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and even Florida.

I think this question assumes the Cuban people don't understand the role the US plays in their problems-- the people who had both weathered the 90s special period and the relative success they had when the US eased up on its blockade, one or both occurring within most of the countries lifetime. Cuba already defeated a coup attempt 1-2 years ago that had taken decades to foment, so I think despite the fact that things are not looking great in Cuba right now, the idea that they would fold is a neoliberal fantasy. They know who their tormentors are and they can see the historical example of what happens to a people when they cave to the west.

No, they can always count on Russia and China. Besides, Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, Nicaragua and Brazil are always sending aid to them. They are on their way to join the BRICS Bank.

A color revolution would be more likely if the blockade was dropped.

it will at some point if things don't change; unfortunately for the cubans; it means that the american empire has to falter enough that it's hegemony can no longer isolate them and that requires generations.