this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2023
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chapotraphouse
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He's made it to the run-off election and is polling less than 10-pts from the frontrunner Massa, in a climate where "throw the incumbents out!" is boiling over. These are the same conditions that gave us Bolsonaro in Brazil. The hard-right outsider running as an "anti-corruption" candidate becomes the protest-vote for an increasingly agitated popular base.
Far from the Guaido situation, where a Venezuelan back-bench MP was coronated President by the US State Department, this guy has a very real chance to win the election outright.
Well, tbf Bolsonaro came first in the first round of the election back in 2022. Milei could turn things around, but there's at least this key difference between candidates. He has to overcome that lead and that's no small feat.
Fair. Milei isn't the front-runner like Bolsonaro was in '18 or '22. But the dynamic is comparable.
I think he gives off vibes more because of the extensive media coverage. The US financial sector is absolutely creaming itself at the possibility of a Milei presidency (nevermind how likely he is to fulfill his campaign promises).
There's a standing belief among western pollsters that Massa is at his ceiling of support and all the third-party voters will consolidate around Milei. No idea if that bares out. But its definitely possible.
I actually meant 2018, lol. Brain fart.
I really hope that's just propaganda. Though I've come to expect some really bad things from South American voters since this last fash-conservative wave of elected candidates.
People bombarding social media with the most hair brained propaganda definitely didn't hurt Bolsonaro either