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Ed Zitron says OpenAI is unsustainable. Hacker News bazingabrain responds "wanna bet 10k?"
(news.ycombinator.com)
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this post was submitted on 01 Aug 2024
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the_dunk_tank
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Excellent article.
The stuff about their deal with Microsoft is crazy. MS gets 75% of the profit until they recoup $10B, and free access to any technology OpenAI has or will make until they achieve AGI. So anyone investing in OpenAI is basically only betting that they achieve AGI before they go bankrupt.
That also means Microsoft has little reason to buy OpenAI. Based on the deal, it seems MS is very skeptical of their chances at achieving AGI. It's not a situation where Altman can bluff them into thinking they're making progress, MS has access to see what's really going on.
I think they’d just do a like indirect acquisition or whatever they call it when they hire all the engineers and buy the IP. Wait for OpenAI to burn too much cash, hire their best, and get all the rights to the IP then just laugh
It's the perfect strategy. Microsoft wins no matter what
Absolutely. Whoever negotiated the deal, on the Microsoft side was an MVP.
The bit about determining the valuation of $1 in Azure credits is the best part, to my mind. Because how do they calculate that? I have to imagine that it's not $1 of cooling, power, and compute that Microsoft paid for their datacenter. Because why would they provide that at cost to OpenAI?