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this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2023
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chapotraphouse
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So what were and are your calculations? What are you basing this prediction on? Seems weird to throw it out there and not elaborate.
I'm gonna ignore stages 1-3 which I have various disagreements with but isn't the main problem really, I just want to ask why you think stage 4 will be a socialist outcome and not a fascist outcome given historical precedents or revolution attempts in the imperial core.
So what happens to all the ideological fascists we've seen grow over the last 20 or so years? At what point do they stop growing and why don't they play a major part in any of this? Does Biden murder them all or do re-education programs?
It was wrong in that he believed it would happen in advanced industrialised countries rather than those that are at the highest level of exploitation. This was his euro exceptionalist brainworms talking at the time.
Their backers aren't weakened. Industrial and manufacturing labour simply exists where it previously did not. Their backers retain all the money and power they always had on top of gaining a far greater incentive to invest in fascists as an opposition to the growing labour movement.
Socialists will not win under these conditions, against half a country already fascist that only needs organising, and a political structure that is already seeing true believer fascists funded by democrats and getting into power. You think Florida is magically going to stop being fascist after what has been done to it? When? Why? What is happening with all the fascists? Nothing is. They've been on a path of growth for 35 years now and they will continue on this path.
You do also think that the US stays monolithic hegemomial due to the dollar game, while the multipolar world doesn't come to fruition. I do think that if industrial capacity somewhere else is destroyed then other places will get to the forefront, this doesn't have to be the USA.
I wonder if your conception is a bit too focused on nationalism in the USA and ignores the internationalist/financial pressure pressure for low wages and control over people's body more than is currently possible in the USA outside the prison industrial complex.
Nigeria for example is a huge country that will grow quite well for the next decades till the effects of climate change will make it much harder to live there, which will bring lower agricultural output with it and the instabilities caused by climate change, political instability (according to OP's text etc.). Could be - just like Mexico or special development zones in the USA be used for cheap labour. Which Awoo did hint at in another comment (that just because labour due to isolationist economy is more needed, doesn't mean it will immediately win).
I would also ask what degree of separation from the dollar you think is possible with oil/gas and gold which are convertible in foreign trade quite well. So my question would in addition be what are the fundamental texts or competencies of yourself you use to draw for your outlook (don't dox yourself though).
Thanks for elaborating. I’m not sure it will shake out that way but it’s an interesting possibility. How does this thought experiment go if Trump beats Biden in 2024, does it make a difference?