this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2023
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the_dunk_tank

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It's the dunk tank.

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[–] save_vs_death@hexbear.net 56 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

They never will, the signs are already bad for the Ukrainian side.

In March 2023, the EU made the historic decision to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine within 12 months. But the number that has actually been sent is closer to 300,000.

According to the armed forces of Ukraine, over the summer of 2023, Ukraine was firing up to 7,000 artillery shells a day and managed to degrade Russia’s logistics and artillery to the point where Russia was firing about 5,000 rounds a day. Today, the Ukrainians are struggling to fire 2,000 rounds daily, while Russian artillery is reaching about 10,000.

Russia is likely to be able to fire about 5m rounds at Ukraine in 2024, based on its mobilised defence production, supply from Iran and North Korea, and remaining stocks. Despite the flippant observation – often made by European officials – that Russia’s economy is the same size as that of Italy, the Kremlin is producing more shells than all of Nato.

This is not to say "Russia stronk, victory imminent", but that there's a rising tide on the Russian side which has, amusingly, more stable allies, that can actually ship war supplies on time. Even this lib commentator is not shying away from noting the Ukrainian counter-offensive floundered. The closer you get to the actual details, the less gung-ho you are about the war, funny that.

[–] ReadFanon@hexbear.net 24 points 10 months ago

One of the worst and best things to happen to the world was the rise of the private defense contractors.

Obviously I don't need to explain why it is one of the worst things. But as for the best? Man, if all of the worst excesses of capitalism and neoliberalism aren't captured in a microcosm that is defence contractors...

The sheer amount of graft and inefficiency and boondoggles and everything else that comes from putting profits first in a captive capital environment. That's not to say that truly free-range capital is somehow a force for good but when defence contractors know that they're going to get handed billions upon billions of dollars every year and that they're competing against maybe a couple of other contractors, and sometimes none at all, then they're largely insulated from the forces of the market that tend to drive capitalist innovation.

The fact that the US had basically emptied its stocks of certain munitions really early in the Ukraine war speaks volumes about how fragile of a paper tiger the military-industrial complex really is. Obviously the US would have strategic stockpiles tucked away for when the shit hits the fan but last I checked it was going to take years for stocks of certain munitions to be replenished.

And the US isn't even in close to being in a full-blown war right now.

If it was like the old model the US would be able to take direct intervention into production, command-economy style, to produce weapons in order to fill the current shortfall in production but it would probably require an all out war with the US at the centre before they'd even consider abandoning their precious and fundamentally hamstrung neoliberal model.

Shit's rotten to the core and it is glorious thing to behold.

[–] RyanGosling@hexbear.net 3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

more stable allies

An important thing that westerners forget. Aside from rampant privatization in western counties, they frequently alienate the global south by demeaning them, their cultures, and refusing to provide any aid to substitute China’s and Russia’s aid. They expect Africans, Latin Americans, and Asians to just shut up and sanction everyone to the detriment of their people and economies.