imo it's too early to tell. Americans have the memory of a goldfish, I don't think anything that happens before the final candidates for each party are chosen matters. Sure the dems have absolutely lost some people over Bombin' Biden's support of Israel, but I don't think that really matters to most american voters. It's looking like it'll be Biden vs Trump again, but without a bunch of residual goodwill towards biden and Trump has the advantage of not being on the defence this time (court cases notwithstanding but I don't know how much those will factor in. If anything he can spin it as being under attack by the entrenched powers etc etc). Right now if I was a betting man I'd say trump has the lead, but with still almost a year to go anything could happen.
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Bad
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
I'm probably just biased because I think trump is hilarious but I feel he's gonna blow Biden out the water
Sometimes he can be because he's such a buffoon. Nothing funny about what he's said recently though. Stuff that people like Stephen miller have most likely been feeding him
Opinions of the youth don't matter and they'll go amnesic in six months time regardless, older middle class cracker suburbanites vote more, and they don't care about genocide or border camps, they'll vote for Biden because of the money the US is sucking up from Europe and the residual aftershocks from Roe vs Wade
Trump will be too bogged down with court battles to focus on effective anti-dem campaigning, and for every Arab vote Biden loses he'll pick up evangelical zionist dominionists from bumfuck Michigan
Turnout will be slightly lower but not unprecedented, the zionist lobby will recover in a years time, pro-Palestinian voices will slowly and quietly be purged from media and academia, and all the pseudo-left culture commentators will be activated and start preaching for the cult of harm reduction
Biden will win a comfortable victory
Fuck, now I want a drink.
Idk, kinda feeling like Trump's chances are/will be dwindling with all the shit dragging him down. Biden has kept the peace domestically relative to Trump - I feel like everyone was pretty tired from the constant turmoil during Trump. The economy is kinda in the tank in some regards, and better in others, but for the suburbanite voting block dealing with housing prices I think Joe has lost a lot of support. I was thinking I'd throw Joe a bone for pulling out of Afghanistan, forgiving at least part of student loans, and showing up at some picket lines... But this genocide shit tanked it for me. What good is domestic stability if it's at the cost of others? Then again, he hasn't started any new wars and has held to peace agreements elsewhere... Trump might decide to invade the Congo or some crazy shit.
At the end of the day I just really hope both Trump and Biden croak from heat stroke at outdoor rallies in what will probably be the new hottest summer ever.
been following that ettingermentum guy that Chapo has interviewed before for his electoralism takes from getting the 2022 election right and I think he thinks that Biden could probably just barely squeak out a win against Trump rn. Dems best chance is to take Biden to the farm upstate and kill him and run literally anyone else, except Hillary, against Trump.
Trump's probably going to win. Biden's approval ratings are historically low, no one likes him, and he's alienating new groups of voters just about every other day. polls already show Biden getting annihilated in swing states, and it's just going to keep getting worse.
While I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats are dumb enough to push Biden, I think he'll be replace with someone more palatable in the convention.
yes, someone...
spoiler
This would have to be the absolute dumbest thing they could do. It would immediately become the single most boneheaded political decision in the history of the Republic.
So, entirely within the realm of possibility
Trump's back
the election will be determined by a future crisis, and not israel / palestine. there are black swans and white crows.
the swing states are literally the only part that matters, ignore popular vote polling.
I'll be shocked if he keeps MI because Palestine
Georgia...the less said about how rabid the local GOP is the better. I'm convinced they'll pull something absurd to try and "stop the second steal" and end up in court again.
NC is probably safe Biden.
The split votes states are probably not going to change much.
Minnesota shouldn't be considered a swing state imo, but people keep it on the list for some reason.
Nevada, also under the I don't understand this state category.
Pennsylvania, I see Trump winning here. Biden is especially hurt by RFK if he actually ends up on the ballot here (no clue why)
Wisconsin seems increasingly down with the local GOP's shit.
I think there will be 6 close races. WI, MI and PA in the North and AZ, NM and GA in the South. A straight north-south split would leave Trump a few points shy of 270, he'll need at least one of those northern states to win. It will be very close and I agree that Pennsylvania or Michigan goes to Trump since democrats can't do electoral math. If the Dems lose both while taking the Southern swing states the two could tie at 269 which is the funniest outcome.
The national security state vastly prefer Biden over Trump, so Biden will most likely be president barring him being incapacitated somehow by virtue of being a walking corpse knocking on death's door.
With respects to Isreal, I think they're going to keep bombing Gaza until they run out of bombs or jet fuel. It's a grim thought but it's the only way I see this ending, because Americans are already losing interest in talking about the conflict and once that happens our government is gonna ignore them the same way we ignored Yemen.
I think that process will play out fast enough that I think it will be a non-issue to the average voter. I think people are going to vote based on their gut feeling about the economy, and I don't think that's likely to change over the next year. People are going to think it's bad, and they're going to have a whole year of Republicans telling them that the economy was good during the Trump years.
People like us who remember that it was shit back then too will be in the minority, and the main thing that might prevent Trump from getting over the line will be people remembering how annoying things were in 2016-2020 when the president was in the news every single day. That, or an Act of God, like one of them dying suddenly, is the only thing I can see preventing a Trump win in 2024.
I'm really not sure, I think there is a pretty active crowd that hates Trump more than Biden. However, I see Israel being a potentially killing blow. I'm like 70 percent trump 30 biden at this point.
Trump will likely win, white people in America are basically all high in Hitler particles
Democrats double down on Biden and sit back as their voters bad-jacket anyone that defies them.
Brandon wins with a comfortable lead over Desantis. I think the legal shit Donnie is in might actually prevent him from winning. The people yearn for brunch.
Even if Trump somehow isn't the nominee, which absolutely isn't going to happen, Niki Haley is looking like number 2 after DeSantis has been conclusively shown to be a weird ass elf shoed wearing freak who has been flip flopping on culture war stuff.
But trumps gonna be the nominee, even if he's in jail (literally 0% chance that happens) he'll still be the strongest republican candidate.
I can't see Desantis winning nomination unless some genuinely earthshattering stuff happens in the Republican party where some state parties go rogue and put him on the ballot instead of Trump. Or weird stuff happens with electors going rogue like in 2016, like those democratic electors voting for Colin Powell, or the one vote for Ron Paul from Texas.
And honestly, maybe at this point. I don't think Trump is truly well liked among the GOP ghouls, they just care about winning.
Germany:
The AfD get huge wins in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. The likelihood of them actually getting into government is low. The Left party and the patsoc splitter BSW (name likely to change) will take votes from each other and probably both manage to get either barely above or below 5%.
The Socdems and Greens eat shit, and if the FDP's membership vote on dissolving the traffic light coalition, the early elections will almost certainly lead to a grand coalition of a reaganite CDU and the SPD. The left party is also highly likely to get like 3% or 2% and probably wither away in such a scenario.
Austria:
I don't know enough about their politics, but I'd give the KPÖ (Communist Party) a 50% chance of getting into the national council. They had a big surge, but the socdems elected a Bernie Sanders style sheepdog that gave off the impression of being more left wing than he is. The fash will probably win, but the government will be formed by the conservatives, socdems and maybe liberals in one alliance.
Rest of the world:
Putin probably wins a huge landslide. The yanks wallow in misery from their own elections. A man named Chad won't win the Chadian election.
I'm voting for both Trump and Biden
Locally I've been voting for communists for seven years, no sign of revolution so far
If trumps runs as republican i think he wins for sure, the current palestine crisis have caused a bunch of voter apathy in not just leftist but also muslim voters in important swing states and the only dem strategy to get people to vote is threating that Trump will kill/deport all muslims/lgbt+ people. Which to me is a losing strategy.
Now if republicans dont run trump i honestly dont see them winning any way, all their candidates are just weak.
I think dems have a good chance to win if they stick to the old plan to not run Biden for 2024. How ever i do think its posible for trump to win as an independent if the Republicans dont run him and dems go fir Bidem again.
I think the current Status quo will continue of US states passing increasing fascist policies and the US trying to do all it can to keep their empire together, i dont see Trump or Biden having that radical of a diference maybe Trump will escalate the China cold war and Biden would instead focus on trying to contain Russia, the Middleeast policy will be the same.