this post was submitted on 10 Feb 2024
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chapotraphouse

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Betting markets think Michelle Obama is 3rd most likely to be the next president (I disagree but ymmv)

Nitter

I don't know if it's a betting market or markets. I checked the thread - I don't know the ultimate source.

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[–] PKMKII@hexbear.net 22 points 9 months ago

It’s hilarious that libs keep thinking she’s a viable option for president when she’s made it bluntly clear for years that she has zero interest in running for any office.

[–] Acute_Engles@hexbear.net 21 points 9 months ago

Michelle Obama is an Alex Jones tier theory

[–] NephewAlphaBravo@hexbear.net 14 points 9 months ago (1 children)

she's been on those lists for like 10 years now who gives a shit

[–] Orcocracy@hexbear.net 11 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

Americans desperately want a monarchy. It doesn’t matter whether it’s the Obamas or Clintons or Kennedys, the American public apparently has a deep subconscious desire to be run by one single fancy family

[–] Owl@hexbear.net 5 points 9 months ago

Americans would want the monarchy to alternate between two hereditary lines, in the name of fairness.

[–] ComradeChairmanKGB@lemmygrad.ml 13 points 9 months ago

Would you be more or less likely to vote for Kamala if you knew that upon taking the presidency her first act would be an executive order to place everyone in chastity?

Kamala 2024 - Do Not Cum

[–] LaGG_3@hexbear.net 12 points 9 months ago

If Michelle Obama becomes president, we'll need a Julia or Faye version of obama-spike

[–] crispy_lol@hexbear.net 12 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Kamala at 1.9 is still a bargain I would buy if I were a betting man

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 8 points 9 months ago

Every night before she goes to bed - Kamala says a little prayer: "Please God - make a little blood vessel in his brain go 'pop'. Amen."

[–] hotcouchguy@hexbear.net 3 points 9 months ago

Yeah I'd say easily 5%, but probably not 10. I'd certainly put her a bit higher than Newsom.

[–] chickentendrils@hexbear.net 11 points 9 months ago (2 children)

I've made out well on prediction markets in the past, but POTUS is one I won't touch personally. Trump for GOP nominee in '16/'24 is just free money (absent heart attack gun).

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 15 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

absent heart attack gun

The state of Trump's health is unknown. He might live another 10 years or he might die from a natural heart attack in the next five minutes.

[–] Owl@hexbear.net 1 points 9 months ago

I made a killing for a while on Manifold (a fake money prediction market) based primarily on a strategy of "nothing ever happens." And this sort of 7% bet on a nonsense tail-end probability really reminds me of why that worked.

[–] Dolores@hexbear.net 11 points 9 months ago (1 children)

michelle would take a devastating loss as they stamped her face on the "healthy school lunch" austerity program, lol

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 23 points 9 months ago

I'm no fan of the Obamas but, man, did and does the GOP hate her like she took their babies away.

When Obana was president - she had a campaign to get people to drink more water. I'm convinced that at it was done because at least two people connected to the president set it up and they had a secret betting pool. The bets were if the republicans would or would not attack her for being pro-water. And the group that put their money on the GOP attacking won because that's exactly what they did.

[–] UmbraVivi@hexbear.net 11 points 9 months ago (1 children)

People think Michelle Obama is more likely than RFK Jr?

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 7 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I don't know the ultimate source of the screengrab. It might be a site run by a guy in his mancave as a joke slash way to make money. But libs live in world were politics can be seen as some combination of sports, entertainment, and fantasy football. It'll never happen but If she declared her 2024 candidacy - a large percentage of the lib voter base would be instantly ecstatic. "Another Obama in the White House! Let's make it happen!" I'd love it too. Biden would tank at least 10 points in the polls in a week. Serious pundits would be forced to discuss the possibility of Biden dropping out. And best of all - man, would he be mad! I'd watch his press conferences in the hopes he'd lose it.

But back in the real world - Biden's the nominee until he gets incapacitated do to serious health problems or he dies of old age.

[–] UmbraVivi@hexbear.net 5 points 9 months ago (3 children)

I just struggle to believe that 7.2% of people would put money betting on Michelle Obama to become the next president. I know libs love her, but this isn't about "who would you like to be president", but "who do you think will be president" and she's not running. That can't be right.

[–] Owl@hexbear.net 4 points 9 months ago

It's more like 7.2% of the money that people are willing to bet. And they're weirdos who like prediction markets.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 2 points 9 months ago

I googled for a poll. The following is from 2021. I know it's not the greatest. It's "if Biden doesn't run" and it's far too old but it's the only poll I could find. Google results were garbage.

Poll: Harris, Michelle Obama lead for 2024 if Biden doesn't run - The Hill

11/26/21

Vice President Kamala Harris and former First Lady Michelle Obama are in the lead for a 2024 presidential run if President Biden decides not to try for a second term, a new Hill-HarrisX poll found. The poll found Harris in the lead among likely candidates, with 13 percent of respondents supporting her. Michelle Obama came in second at 10 percent.

[–] RION@hexbear.net 8 points 9 months ago

It's all the rage on lib TikTok according to my mom

[–] JohnBrownNote@hexbear.net 4 points 9 months ago

screw michelle, i want the women who shot him down in college