Prediction: Biden wins (the electoral college while losing the popular vote obvs) and pivots the Democratic Party on a hard right turn because he won with the support of suburban whites and didn't need to attract young voters at all.

You should treat polls done my the ruling class media not at face value, but rather as "Why does Fox News want it's viewers to see this?"

a few things on this:

-don't underestimate Normal Whites - they will vote for biden over trump. they are not as loud as MTG chuds but there are more of them than the most rabid chuds. Normal Whites do not really give a shit about trans bathrooms, child sacrifice and retvrning to tradition. those are things for internet people with brain poisoning.

-the american electorate literally does not give a flying fuck about foreign policy or the rest of the world. biden's failures in project ukraine, genocide in gaza, the humiliation of the fall of kabul in 2021 - none of that means literally anything to the electorate at large. people like to think that maybe dubya was voted out over iraq, but that absolutely is not true, his problem was the economy (stupid). do not make the mistake of thinking that american voters give even the slightest bit of a shit about foreign policy. it is a distant number 15 on priority lists compared to the economy, immigration, etc.

-related to the above, for corporate interests, homeowners, people who own stocks the economy is doing fine. the line has gone up a lot under biden, especially recently. yes these gains are not evenly shared among the populace, but the people who gain them are far more likely to vote than poors anyway.

Polls are never wrong

Meanwhile, Biden is looking STRONG

Just tonight talked to my dad who voted Trump in the past, and he lamented Nikki Haley was out of the race.

I subscribe to the "Joe Biden is gonna win electorally, but not with the popular vote" line; but Trump doesn't seem to have the broad republican appeal he had in the past, and I guess normie Republicans are feeling the post-Bernie Blues from my experience.

The debates will probably flip this again.

Why? How?

There is no way, I'm sorry, I'm like 90% sure Trump is going to win this shit. All of the enthusiasm for him in his rabid voters is real crazy people energy and all Biden has is whoever MSNBC can brainwash into thinking electing him will save America from fascism, and the venn diagram between those and the people already voting Biden is a circle

Everything I've heard is that Biden keeps hitting new lows, so this poll might be an outlier

Republicans are more accepting of Biden now.

Hmmmm... wonder if it's because of all the brown people he's killing.

The debates are gonna be crazy tbh. I think Biden will probably win if he doesn’t have some kind of major malfunction on live tv, but that’s a big if, especially if Trump really tries to go after him

I will reiterate: I don't think Biden is out of the count yet.

This election will probably be similar to the last ones. IIRC, virtually the same number of people always vote for the Republican presidential candidate. It's just the number of people voting for Democrats that fluctuates. My guess is that Biden will once again win the popular vote, but that he has a 50-50 chance of losing enough swing states to lose to Trump.

Anecdotally, almost no one is enthusiastic about either candidate. I live in a low-population (irrelevant) rural swing state, and I've seen a few Trump flags and stickers, and exactly one car with Biden stickers, and only one Biden yard sign. (I also spend several hours driving around every workday, FML, so I've had a decent look at a rural purple county, as well as a small city that is packed with young white libs and pride flags.) A few months ago I found myself taking a class with a bunch of chuds, and I was shocked at how they were just not that into Trump. Like, the older ones were going to vote for him—one said that he did "an awesome job" as president and that the president "should be a businessman"—but when he got indicted a few months ago (or whatever the fuck happened), they were concerned. "If only he would keep his mouth shut!" It's similar IMO to Democrats being unenthusiastic about Biden yet still showing up to vote for him in droves. The younger dudes I was with were definitely reactionary but I can't recall them expressing any support for Trump of any kind.

Biden got a lot of votes from young folks in the last election, but they/we mostly live in cities and blue states and therefore do not matter. I do think that foreign disasters matter and that "the economy" is only working for people who own a lot of stocks / houses, and that younger folks who express any enthusiasm for Biden risk losing friends. We still have over five months left until election day, and basically every day of Biden's presidency (like Trump's) has been a catastrophe, so we have to see. My theory is that the funniest realistic result is usually what happens in these elections, even if both Biden and Trump are genocidal fascists (redundant) and not funny to the millions who have died because of them. The funniest result would be...I don't know. Trump winning? Trump losing? Both of them dying during a debate (godwilling)?

Feels outlierish to me just given what we've seen consistently for the past several months and I can't point to something either candidate has done that would be a cause for such a shift. Unless the conviction really matters that much to people, which I guess it might? A complete collapse would be a good way to describe such a shift but again, where's the cause. The economy is still shit and worsening, Israel and Ukraine are both disasters, big rightward turn in Europe, I just don't see it.

I legit can't tell who's gonna win

I've said it before that I'm not bothering to even think about who is going to win the election until October. So much can happen between then and now, and Americans have the memories of goldfish.